‘The deal is about India’s great power status’

For some time now, energy security has been a critical foreign policy concern for all nation-states, and especially for India. Foreign policy expert Dr Marie-Carine Lall, a honorary fellow at the Institute Of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore and professor at the Institute of Education at London, was in Mumbai at the invitation of the Asia Society, India Centre, to deliver a lecture on the geopolitics of energy in South Asia. She spoke to G Sampath about India’s various options for improving its energy security.

How will the Indo-US nuclear deal help India’s energy security?
This deal has got absolutely nothing to do with energy. If it works as it is expected to, then India will receive 6 per cent of its electricity from nuclear energy. This is minuscule, when you compare it with France, where the percentage is much higher, and nuclear power makes a real difference.

What’s the deal about if not energy?
It has a lot to do with India getting the Great Power status. In the UN Security Council, for instance, all the permanent members are recognised nuclear powers. Even though India was known to be a nuclear power since 1974, due to the Nuclear-Non-proliferation Treaty, it was not recognised as one. The Manmohan Singh government is trying to rectify that. This was only going to be possible if the US did this kind of a deal with India.

If the deal falls through?
Even if the deal fails, the fact that the US has extended the deal and tried to negotiate it with India means that recognition has already taken place.

In terms of regional stability, wouldn’t the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline make better sense?
Absolutely. But the very fact that you are already framing it as an either/or shows how much people in India have internalised what America has been saying about India’s choices. Why shouldn’t India have both the deal and gas from Iran? Last year I greatly admired the Manmohan Singh government for the fact that they were simultaneously conducting negotiations with Iran, Pakistan and the US. They were clearly going to have their cake and eat it too. However, Nicholas Burns, who was negotiating from the US side, is on record as having admonished Manmohan Singh for having relations with Iran. He has warned off the Indian government from constructing the pipeline.

So India has to choose between nuclear energy and gas?
Well, India needs gas. It also needs nuclear energy. But it doesn’t need nuclear energy as much as it needs the gas. China is buying gas from wherever it can get. It is now negotiating with Iran and — this sounds crazy — it is planning to ship the gas to Gwadar Port in Pakistan, and then pipe it up and through the Karakorams. It’s actually much simpler for India to pipe the gas than for China. The IPI deal is that everyone builds their stretch of the pipeline. Iran has already started. If Pakistan gets its act together, the pipeline will come within 100 miles of the Indian border. It makes no sense for India not to tap this gas. It needs the gas for its economy, and the IPI will have immense positive repercussions, in terms of India and Pakistan negotiating together from the same side of the table. It will stabilise the region, but that is not in the US interest.

Why not?
Divide and rule.

Aren’t you being too cynical?
Not at all. Look, if the US doesn’t want this pipeline to happen, they should be talking to their ally, Pakistan. And if anyone is going to buy gas from Iran, it is Pakistan. But the US hasn’t said a word to Pakistan about not importing gas from Iran, but is instead putting pressure on India, which makes no sense because the pipeline has to come through Pakistan first. It really is about divide and rule. It is almost like the US is giving the goods out — you can have the nuclear deal and you can have the gas, but we decide who gets what.

How does Myanmar figure in India’s energy scenario?
Myanmar has huge gas reserves. In the last few years, in the Rakhine coast, gas was found again. Indian companies got involved, and they got lucky in one of the gas fields. But India couldn’t make up its mind what to do with it: should they pump it though the North-East, or through Bangladesh? By the time Bangladesh came on board, Myanmar was being dragged through the Security Council, and China used its veto to save Myanmar’s skin. In return, the gas was promised to China.

Is it a lost opportunity for India?
Not entirely. Last year, Myanmar auctioned eight deep sea gas blocks of which of which India got three. These might very well have gas, in which case it makes sense to still build that pipeline from Myanmar to India.