Wuhan virus is here to stay, let's learn to live with it

Headlines this week were dominated by vaccines and rightly so. This was the news we all were waiting for all year long and as of today three vaccines have already been approved and at least two others are awaiting regulatory approvals while many others are in phase 3 of trials. These numbers certainly help us end the year on a better and hopeful note. But the question is do they end the Wuhan Virus pandemic?

When I say that the pandemic is not going away anytime soon, all I am doing is sticking to the facts. While vaccine may be here, the virus, too is likely to stay. There are three points to argue my case:

We will begin with history. Consider past pandemics and how they went. We will then look at the present situations and take a look at all that we know about the current vaccines. Then we will look at the future and talk about the challenges ahead.

Vaccines may not put an end to the pandemic. As for the virus- it may be here to stay.
Past pandemics, present numbers, and experts- all corroborate this. Listen in to @palkisu. pic.twitter.com/Vg7bgWPfoU — WION (@WIONews) December 13, 2020

The Wuhan Virus is not the first pandemic. History has way too many such as The Great Plague of Marseille France of 1721, the first cholera pandemic (1817-1824), the third plague pandemic that started in China in 1855 and was considered active until 1960, the Spanish Flu (January 1918-December 1920), the Asian Flu that started in Hong Kong (1957-1958). In the last two centuries, cholera has reached pandemic proportions seven times. The last one ended in 1975.

SARS was the first pandemic of the 21st century. It originated in China in 2002. HIV which started in 981 is still classified as a pandemic and we don’t have a vaccine for HIV but we have one for the Wuhan Virus. But it may still not be a silver bullet. A Mackenzie report predicts that it may take until December 2021 for the US to achieve herd immunity and it may take at least a year for the pandemic to end – at least one year.

Viruses, you see, don’t just disappear. They take time and there are repeated waves. Vaccine is just one weapon in the fight against the pandemic.

Since we are talking about history, consider this. Vaccines exist for a bunch of other human viruses, too. Then why is it that only small pox has been eradicated from the planet? A vaccine for it was developed by Edward Jenner in 1796 but small pox was eradicated only in 1980.

However, times have changed, science has changed. If a vaccine could be developed in 10 month, of course, we can speed up other processes, too. From manufacturing to distribution to the administering of a vaccine, but how much can we rely on the current shot? I am not questing the vaccine makers and the experts who have worked so hard but there are some genuine questions that we must raise. For example how long will the vaccine-induced immunity last? Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said that the question of duration will be a “part of ongoing studies”, which basically means we don’t have an answer.

Some researchers for Harvard said if immunity lasts only a few months there could be a big pandemic followed by smaller outbreaks every year. What is also blurry is that while a vaccine may be able to immunize a person but will it also stops its transmission?

The Wuhan Virus is asymptomatic in several cases and is a fast-moving respiratory pathogen. It has managed to spill over from animals to humans and has travelled to every corner of the world. So, even if we are betting on a vaccine, we must immunise a sizeable portion of the global population in order to lower the risk of the virus.

The total population of the world is 7.7 billion and for two shots of the vaccine, the world would need 15 billion doses. But do we have enough?

 The answer lies in the world’s pharmacy i.e. India. India supplies 60 per cent of vaccines to the developing world. Pune’s Serum Institute is world’s largest vaccine manufacturer. It CEO Adar Poonawalla said, “It is going to take four-five years until everyone gets the vaccine in this planet.”

There is also an imbalance in supply. More than 10 billion doses of vaccine have been pre-ordered. As many as 27 EU states and five others have pre-ordered half of it. These countries account for only 13 per cent of the global population. High-income countries are hoarding vaccines and leading this pack is Canada, which has ordered nearly nine doses for each individual. The USA, the UK, the EU, Australia have ordered 4-5 doses per person, while Japan has ordered more than two doses per person. The result is this: nine out of 10 people in poor countries are set to miss out on the COVID-19 vaccine next year.

What does the future hold, will the pandemic end?

Experts say, there is always a chance that the Wuhan Virus will mutate. Overtime the Wuhan Virus may become just another seasonal respiratory virus. Thirdly, a vaccine may not eradicate the Wuhan Virus but over the years, a shot may make the virus less deadly. Also, even if the virus disappears from humans, it may linger on in animals and may find new hosts.

This means masks and social distancing are not going away anytime soon, work from home will go on for some more time, crowded restaurants may be a thing of the past for the foreseeable future, sanitisers and handwashes will remain as will temperature checks. Festivals, weddings, birthdays, events will all have to be modified in 2021 too. Holidays and vacations will either have to wait or be tweaked.

Even after everyone human on this planet gets a vaccine shot, the Wuhan Virus may not be eradicated from the face of this earth completely.

The author is the Executive Editor of WION