ANALYSIS
The emergence of Gandhi as a national leader in his own right and a serious challenger to Modi?
A resurrected Congress under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, winning in three Hindi heartland states, has been widely regarded as the biggest year-end story of 2018. But what does it really portend? The shakiness of India’s ruling party, BJP, despite its powerful and effective leader, Prime Minister Narendra Modi? The emergence of Gandhi as a national leader in his own right and a serious challenger to Modi? Major changes in the ruling and opposition strategies and the possibility of the rise of alternative political configurations? The re-emergence of a non-BJP, non-Congress third front? Or an extended period of political uncertainty if no clear verdict or winner is evident?
As the year draws to a close, all these — and other — outcomes have been considered and debated. But nothing is as yet clear. Politics is a game of uncertainties; making hasty prognostications can be foolish if not hazardous.
But, whatever our wishes, hopes, forecasts, or expectations of the 2019 general elections, one thing is incontrovertible. In politics persistence pays. Rahul Gandhi, unlike what some commentators have argued, has not suddenly matured or come of age. Nor is it that he has abruptly discovered a new management or leadership mantra. Instead, since his assumption of the presidentship of the Congress a year back in December 2017, he definitely seems to have matured.
Before the recently concluded assembly elections, his greatest challenge had been Gujarat. There, the Congress led by Gandhi, gave the incumbent BJP, already at the helm for two decades, a run for their money. The BJP managed to hold on to power, but just barely. If both Narendra Modi and Amit Shah had not just campaigned but virtually camped in Gujarat, the result might have been different. Gujarat was a prestige issue for the BJP, with both the PM and the party president, hailing from that state. They simply could not afford to lose Gujarat. And win they did — in the end, with a slim lead, capturing 99 seats in the 182 member house. The Congress came a respectable second, with 77 under its belt. The narrowing of the gap between the Congress and BJP was attributed, in large measure, to Gandhi’s leadership.
For a long time, BJP leaders used to boast that one reason they would remain in power was that they had a hidden trump card in Rahul Gandhi. As long as Gandhi led the Congress, they believed, he would ensure that BJP continued to win. However, the same people who mocked him are not so cocky any more. Indeed, Gandhi can no longer be counted upon to score one self-goal after another, spouting unintended gaffes or committing unforced errors. Instead, he has shown unexpected aggression in attacking not just the BJP but Modi. In addition he has not hesitated to adopt tricks from the opposition playbook, the most visibly obvious of which is his reassertion of Hindu identity and penchant for temple-going. He is also known to hire the good talent and listen to sound advice. Gandhi has thus not only shown flexibility, but persistence.
In Indian politics ultimately that is what matters. No matter how much criticism and ridicule you face, if you never give up, the Indian public will eventually, even grudgingly, come to respect you. Holding a party together, keeping the dissenting factions in check, balancing the egos of satraps and regional leaders, managing even inspiring party cadres — this is what matters. Rahul Gandhi may not have the abilities of his ancestors, let alone the political acumen or genius of Narendra Modi, but he has shown that he can persist in the rough and tumble of Indian politics. What is more, the hold of the Gandhi family on the reigns of the Congress party are firmer than ever. The prospects of the party disintegrating or opting for a new leadership after a rebellion appear bleak. The Congress that Indira Gandhi reinvented and Sonia Gandhi revived is very much intact, with one more scion of the ruling family, Rahul, very much at the helm of affairs.
Indian voters may no longer want ruling families as their first choice to lead them, but they will not write off such an eventuality. Families, with the brand value and recognition that comes with familiar faces, remain very much part of the Indian social reality, whether in politics or cinema. This is not likely to change in the near future. But those with legacy advantages cannot rely only on their inheritance; they have to earn the trust of the people, struggling to prove their right to lead. This is the process that Rahul Gandhi is going through. Luckily for him, he has had plenty of time, not to speak of the proverbial long rope. But his real test lies ahead, in 2019.
Author is Director, IIAS, Shimla Views are personal
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