Where has the monsoon gone?

On August 7, Manik Kadam, a farmer and president of Marathwada division of Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana, a farmers’ organisation in Maharashtra, had filed a police complaint in Parbhani against the India Meteorological Department (IMD), alleging that the department had misguided farmers about monsoon rainfall and that the tillers were now staring at a drought-like situation and huge crop losses. 

According to Kadam, the IMD’s 2nd stage long-range forecast for southwest monsoon rainfall this year, issued on May 30, had predicted a “normal” monsoon for the entire country (97 per cent of the long period average with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent). Long period average, or LPA, is the weighted average of rainfall received between June and September from 1951 to 2000, and is pegged at 89 cm.

But, two months after the monsoon has set in, several villages in Marathwada region of Maharashtra are facing drought-like conditions, complained Kadam. Short-term crops like green gram have wilted and other kharif crops — soybean and Bt cotton — are also under threat. 

As of August 12, 10 districts of Maharashtra have recorded deficient monsoon rainfall, with highest rainfall departure of minus 42 per cent in Aurangabad district in Marathwada. Other districts in the region — Jalna, Beed, Parbhani — have also recorded deficient rainfall of minus 40 per cent, minus 29 per cent and minus 23 per cent, respectively. Overall, as against a normal rainfall of 400.1mm, Marathwada has received 317.4mm rainfall (till August 12), registering a rainfall departure of minus 21 per cent. The situation may get worse, as the state government has issued an advisory, informing the farmers about scanty or no rains in the region till August 16.  

At an all-India level, as of August 12, rainfall departure is minus 11 per cent. As per IMD’s definition, when the percentage departure of realised rainfall (for entire southwest monsoon season) is less than 10 per cent of the LPA, then it is considered as “below normal” rainfall year.

Meteorologists are keeping a close watch on the monsoon, as half the southwest monsoon season is already over, and rainfall prediction for August and September doesn’t look too promising. 

According to Skymet Weather, a private forecasting agency, which issued an updated forecast for this southwest monsoon on August 2, the rainfall is predicted to be 92 per cent of the LPA. In April this year, it had forecast “normal” monsoon rainfall of 100 per cent of LPA, with no chance of drought in the country. GP Sharma, president of meteorology and climate change with Skymet Weather, explained that the change in monsoon forecast was due to the rapid rise in sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean and an evolving El Niño. He claimed that by the end of September, 2018, it be a “below normal” monsoon year.

However, the IMD is standing by its long range forecast of “normal” monsoon, defined as 96-104 per cent of the LPA. On August 3, it issued a press release, informing “quantitatively, the rainfall for the country as a whole during the second half of the season (August and September) is likely to be 95 per cent of LPA with a model error of ±8 per cent.” As against the Skymet’s prediction of rainfall of 88 per cent of LPA in August, the IMD has predicted 96 per cent of LPA for the same month (with an error of plus or minus 9 per cent). But, the IMD has not released any updated forecast for the entire monsoon season.

KJ Ramesh, director general of IMD, clarified that the August 3 update was meant only for August and September. He assured that overall the country would receive “normal” rainfall, which would be between 96 to 104 per cent of the LPA. 

But, the numbers of monsoon data do not seem to add up. The realised rainfall for the months of June and July is 94 percent of LPA. And, the IMD has predicted rainfall of 95 per cent of LPA for August and September. Both these figures together do not make it to the overall “normal” rainfall category of 96 to 104 per cent of the LPA, explained RR Kelkar, former director general of IMD. While the average rainfall for the country as a whole may be satisfactory, individual subdivisions and districts may have deficient rainfall, which is balanced by excess rainfall elsewhere; for instance, the recent Kerala floods. Kelkar also pointed out that the long range forecast is a country average and does not apply uniformly everywhere, hence, the recent police complaint against the IMD was frivolous.

While meteorologists debate over the possibilities of “normal” and “below normal” rainfall, farmers in Marathwada are on tenterhooks. According to Mohan Bhise, former agricultural officer of Latur in Marathwada, kharif crops have already started to fail due to lack of rainfall. Crops on light soils, with low water holding capacity, are already dying. Crops on black cotton soil, which has water retention capacity, can be saved if it rains in the coming one week. Any further delay may lead to huge crop losses (50-60 per cent) as kharif crops are in the critical period of flowering and pod formation (soybean), he warns. The pink bollworm pest infestation, which had affected about 84 per cent Bt cotton crop in the state last year, has again been reported in Marathwada this year. 

“Normal” or “below normal” monsoon rainfall, the future of Marathwada’s farmers is anything but bright. 

The author is an independent journalist. Views are personal.