The UPA-II government has been buffeted around so much that it is not unnatural for questions to be raised on its ability to complete a full term.

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First, it was the plethora of scams that came hurtling out, and now comes the escalating confrontation between the army chief and the government, including a report in the press that two army units had marched towards Delhi in January without notifying the government in what was supposed to be a message to civilian authority. All this has created an atmosphere of uncertainty, even though the government has a majority in the Lok Sabha.

There has been speculation that Mamata Banerjee and Mulayam Singh Yadav have everything to gain by forcing a midterm poll at this stage, rather than wait for 2014, when incumbency would start setting in both states. J Jayalalithaa, too, may benefit from an early poll, but then she does not have the numbers in Parliament and is not an ally like Mamata, who is part of the UPA, and Mulayam, who is an outside supporter.

If there is a threat today to the government, it comes not so much from Mamata or Mulayam but from a situation getting out of hand because of the inability of those leading the government to turn around a difficult situation.

Would Mamata really get more than the 19 seats she has in the Lok Sabha today, if polls were to be held now? The Congress would hardly align with her, if she is instrumental in bringing down the UPA, and this could make the going tough for her than it was last time.

Moreover, her 19 Trinamool MPs are a powerful pressure group today, not just because of the numbers but because of a particular configuration that exists in the 15th Lok Sabha, which may not be the case tomorrow.

After all, Mulayam had almost 40 MPs in the 14th Lok Sabha but he could neither be a kingmaker nor could he prop up UPA-I, as he had hoped to do.Since Mamata does not have national ambitions at this stage, and she is already in power in West Bengal, she would like maximum financial help from the Centre for her money-starved state, and use every opportunity to extract her pound of flesh.

Despite his indifferent health, Mulayam could take the gamble to precipitate a midterm poll if he could be sure that he has a fair chance of becoming PM. He may imagine that his party will notch up 50 Lok Sabha seats, but would the dynamics of a Lok Sabha poll be the same as that of an assembly election, in which his son was viewed as the alternative to Mayawati? Would, for instance, Muslims vote the way they did in the state elections, more so if the BJP decides to project Narendra Modi as its PM candidate?

Mulayam, too, would like to extract money from the Centre to enable Akhilesh Yadav to consolidate his position and deliver on the populist promises he made.

If the onslaught against the UPA government continues unabated, with more exposures, could there be a change of government within the 15th Lok Sabha, since few would favour early elections?

Hypothetically speaking, even if the non-Congress, non-BJP parties were to form a broad front — which is no easy task — and come to an agreement on who would be their leader — even more difficult to achieve — it would not be possible to form an alternative government without the BJP’s backing. And why would the BJP support a rag-tag formation that would not last long, and invite flak for the actions of such a formation? It would only botch up its chances for the next round.

The fact is that the invocation of the ‘midterm-poll’ has become like a mantra to compel a beleaguered government to panic and yield to demands raised by allies and opponents alike. Such a situation goes to reinforce the fragility of the UPA, compounds its policy paralysis, and weakens the Congress.

And yet, this is probably the first time we have seen scandals hitting headlines one after another, and crisis enveloping the UPA relentlessly, over a period of two years. Information is coming by way of leaks generated from within the system, which normally happens when the powerful fallout with each other — and these may be people powerful within government or in the corporate world. This also happens when the central authority weakens. UPA-II is being battered today because nobody seems to be really taking charge.

It is in such a situation that ‘accidents’ can take place. Given the unstable nature of the polity today, they can unleash a chain of events that bring down the government without most players wanting it.

The writer is a social and political commentator