Two years after 26/11, we are still vulnerable

Two years after the Mumbai terror attacks, India has to thank its lucky stars that there has been no repeat of 26/11. But recent attacks — one in Pune, another in Bangalore, a third just before the Commonwealth Games in Delhi, and the last at Varanasi — were all carried out by the so-called Indian Mujahideen, after being outsourced to them by the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).

Fourteen other strikes, including two on October 12 and 13 during the Commonwealth Games closing ceremony, as claimed by home secretary GK Pillai and dismissed by Delhi police commissioner YS Dadwal, were thwarted by intelligence and counterterrorism cooperation with the US, UK, Germany and Israel.

It is clear that India is still vulnerable, despite the elaborate planning for coastal security and the proposed National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC), the equivalent of the US’s Homeland Security.

Very little of the funds and equipment provided for capacity-building have been properly utilised by the states, including Maharashtra; since law and order is a state subject. The problem is that while plans look good on paper, delivery is dismal. Is India waiting for another wake-up attack? Sadly, this is the history of India’s crisis-induced response mechanism.

On the second anniversary of 26/11 the US was quick to issue a message of solidarity and warn Pakistan about dismantling terrorist infrastructure and punishing perpetrators of the Mumbai attack.

It has banned the Falahi Insaniyat Foundation, a cover for the LeT, and declared three of its agents as global terrorists. A New York court has indicted the LeT masterminds of the 26/11 attacks, including Gen Shuja Pasha, the ISI chief. Gen Pasha, some say, could be arrested in the US like Gen Pinochet of Chile was in UK. In Pakistan, no big fish has been convicted on charges of terrorism.

It is highly unlikely that the US will do anything more than say that Pakistan must do more to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure and punish the perpetrators of the crime. That is exactly what happened after the LeT attack on Parliament in 2001. Pakistan is refusing to launch operations in North Waziristan, the biggest terrorist training hub.

Pakistan is the US’s strategic ally and most favoured non-Nato partner in the war in Afghanistan. India is simply on its own in this game and would do well to beef up its own internal apparatus to prevent and pre-empt the next attack, failing which, it should be prepared with an appropriate response.

The ground reality reflects that the spotlight is on Mumbai. Home Minister P Chidambaram was there on November 26 and said “Mumbai will show the way for other states”. Mumbai’s track record in preparation for countering terror since the past two years has not been very impressive.

Only a part of the Rs126 crore, sanctioned immediately after 26/11, has been spent. The Ram Pradhan Committee report has not been implemented in full.

Similarly, while the Indian navy, the nodal agency for coastal security, has issued elaborate papers on plugging gaps at sea through maritime domain awareness, little has been done in augmenting capabilities of the Coast Guard.

Not a single aircraft or helicopter has been added to the fleet of 45 since 2008. Of the nine states covering India’s 7,600km coastline, progress has been reported only from Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. And, of course, a Maritime Security Board is in place.

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee made a 30% increase in the funding for internal security in allocations for the central paramilitary forces and also provided assistance to the states.

In one state, at least, the money meant for enhancing policing skills was diverted to housing. It is time we realised that it is more our internal than external security that will determine our well-being. A separate ministry for internal security is urgently required.

Terrorist organisations are forever changing tactics and strategy but India remains static in action and thinking. Al Qaeda has revealed details of its plans that aim to economically bleed the West. The LeT too, will be thinking out of the box to strike at Indian targets.

Chidambaram had announced that while the US took three years to establish its homeland security, he will have the NCTC in place before the end of 2010. There is no sign of this actually happening anytime soon. Our biggest weakness is the lack of intelligence.

We did have some agents and spies in Pakistan, which accounts for 90% of terrorist attacks in India, but our do-gooder prime minister, IK Gujral, dismantled the set-up in 1997.

The question that periodically pops up is: what will India do if there is another attack sourced in Pakistan? Knowing our state of intelligence, military preparedness, and political will, one can be sure we will fret and fume but do nothing more. For a country aspiring to be a global power, and not yet even a regional power, that’s quite sad.