Trilateral cooperation key to stability in Afghanistan

Although the drawdown of NATO forces in Afghanistan is well under way, there remain uncertainties about the post-2014 situation. The presence and role of the US military and mercenaries, outcome of President Hamid Karzai’s endgames as he prepares the pitch for the presidential election in April and the consequences of the Taliban’s opposition to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif aiding the reconciliation process are just a few of the uncertainties.

The only certainty appears to be uncertainty over the peace-building process taking off as planned to bring about reconciliation and cooperation of those involved in Afghanistan.

However, “reconciliation and cooperation of countries in the region” of South Asia refers not only to stabilisation of the situation towards peace in Afghanistan, it is also a euphemism for India and Pakistan joining hands in and with Afghanistan.

Both India and Pakistan have high stakes and clear interests in Afghanistan, which place the latter firmly at the centre of cooperation. Both India and Pakistan want to maintain their political, economic and security presence in Afghanistan. The country being a hub of terrorist activities, India’s security interests demand that it ramp up its presence and capability to protect Indians, Indian missions, enterprises etc on a permanent basis.

The attacks on Indians and Indian diplomatic missions and the fires in Jammu & Kashmir being stoked by extremists from Afghanistan make it necessary for New Delhi to increase its security. Pakistan cannot countenance this as Afghanistan has always been vital — and is more so now — to Pakistan’s security.

Pakistan fears that under cover of reinforcing its security, India would strive to emerge as the pre-eminent political and economic power in Afghanistan; and, this is a pursuit that Pakistan has to thwart.

Given this rivalry between India and Pakistan, and their opposition to one gaining at the expense of the other in Afghanistan, trilateral cooperation would appear to be a chimera. Yet the benefits flowing from cooperation could be significant and substantial; and, serve their security as well as economic interests.

India would like to develop Afghanistan as a transit point between Central Asia and South Asia. For example, stability in Afghanistan can hasten the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan- India) pipeline, and turn Pakistan into an energy grid that feeds the huge appetite of not only India but the whole of South Asia and China, too. Similarly, exploiting the potential of Gwadar port requires peace in the region, because events in Afghanistan have a cascading effect on Balochistan. The development of transit points, be it Afghanistan or Gwadar port in Pakistan, would be beneficial to India and Pakistan in particular and to South Asia in general.

Increased economic cooperation and trade would mean cheaper goods, new markets, better infrastructure, faster development, better flow and management of energy and more people traffic.

These would raise the stakes for India, Pakistan and Afghanistan to join hands against common security threats such as terrorism.

The key to trilateral cooperation is improved India-Pakistan relations. India-Pakistan hostility and one-upmanship is the single biggest obstacle to stabilising the situation in Afghanistan and creating the conditions for regional peace. While reconciliation may take long, practical steps towards greater regional cooperation can no longer be put off.

In Vajpayee’s last months as Prime Minister and the early years of Manmohan Singh (2004-2006), there were a number of initiatives to take India-Pakistan relations to a new level.  It is not just the mood and momentum of those years that need to be revived but also the spirit, resolve and understanding that characterised the diplomacy, dialogues, visits, meetings and agreements. 

(Excerpts from the author’s presentation on September 22 to the China-South Asia Peace and Development Forum in Kunming, Yunnan Province, on Peace Building Process in Afghanistan: The New Starting Point for Reconciliation and Cooperation of Countries in the Region)