Third Front: A natural ally of the Congress

It should please the Congress that the Federal Front proponents are discussing equidistance from both mainstream parties and that it is “secularism” which is one of the binding factors. Neither Mamata Banerjee nor Nitish Kumar can afford to be seen in the controversial company of Narendra Modi. Naveen Patnaik has frankly spoken about his identical aversion to both the Congress and the BJP. With Mulayam Singh Yadav also insisting on the secular card, a concern for the Muslim vote may keep this untidy flock together.In a politically-sensitive Uttar Pradesh, even Mayawati cannot be expected to chant “NaMo, NaMo”, though nobody can predict what she may choose to do once the elections are over. The Janata Dal (Secular) or even Jagan Reddy’s YSR Congress may similarly prefer a secular identity to over-friendliness with the BJP campaign committee chief. J Jayalalithaa may have expressed her happiness at her friend Modi’s elevation but that is no guarantee that she will risk everything and cast her lot with the Gujarat chief minister.In short, more than the Congress assault on federalism or the usual socialist, anti-reform ideology, secularism is going to provide the real adhesive for these disparate regional parties. And it is this specific tilt which automatically nudges a majority of these possible Federal Front constituents closer towards the Congress.No, it cannot be stretched to imply that any or a few of these regional entities will align with the Congress and be subsumed by a UPA-III. But it does mean that since these groups will collectively fall short of the majority mark and will have to look to around for outside support, they will have no alternative but to turn to the Congress.It need not be emphasised further that the polarising figure of Narendra Modi has made the BJP very “untouchable” all over again. It reminds one of the Vajpayee-led 13-day government in 1996 when the Shiv Sena, Samata Party and the Shiromani Akali Dal were not enough to keep Atal Behari Vajpayee ensconced in 7, Race Course Road. The single-largest party had to bow out of office and make way for a ragtag coalition which survived for almost two years with Congress support. During those two years, with the secular anger over the Babri demolition yet to die down, the BJP, despite its eagerness to show off its mastery of the coalition dharma, was pushed out of every alliance calculation.No wonder then that the BJP is wary of this early Third Front discourse and the party’s spokespersons have queued up to denounce the “unstable arrangement”. All the possible flaws of such an “unscrupulous” partnership are being magnified by BJP representatives in television studios. Vociferous Modi supporters in the social media are sharpening their attack on anybody remotely suggesting the possibility of a Third Front cobbling together an impressive number of seats. The BJP knows that a Third Front government with Congress support will keep it out of power for an even longer period.It suits Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha, Arun Jaitley, to rubbish the Third Front probability. But why should Congress spokesperson Abhishek Manu Singhvi be so ruthless in his assault on this alternative idea? He described the very concept of the Third Front as “ancient wine in ancient bottle,” forgetting that it suits the Congress to have a non-BJP combination in power in Delhi. Such statements betray the Congress insensitivity towards regional parties. In the late seventies, in the early nineties and then again in 1997, the Congress had unseated these somewhat chaotic Third Front experiments.Of course, one cannot overlook the fact that unlike 1996, there is no large Opposition party like the undivided Janata Dal which can hold the smaller satellite parties together. Neither is there a scheming mind like that of the then CPM general secretary, Harkishen Singh Surjeet who was himself like a fulcrum and held the numerous personalities together. There is also hostility between parties — Mayawati will not hold hands with Mulayam, Mamata will maintain a distance with the Left and the DMK will not see eye to eye with AIADMK. It won’t be easy for these parties to find an ideological core which will allow the alliance to adopt a common minimum programme.But as things stand now and as the 17-year-old marriage between JD (U) and the BJP falls apart, the time is ripe for yet another Third Front experiment. Modi will not want to admit it, but he is inadvertently pushing the regional parties in a particular direction. And the Congress will simply adore the secular spirit of the new combine.Diptosh Majumdar is national affairs editor of dna.