Stepping into Khaplang’s shoes: Two names for the NSCN-K chief’s position have emerged

Sangwang Sangnyu Khaplang aka Baba was not only a prominent rebel chief, but also a godfather to the Nagas in Myanmar. His death after a long period of illness has fuelled speculation about the future of the region he controlled, the organisation he headed and its association with the separatist militant outfits from the Northeast that have pitched tent in the neighbouring country.

The faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K) that he founded controlled a vast domain sandwiched between the Chindwin River and the eastern districts of Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh.  This is the northern region of Sagaing Division, which is also among the most underdeveloped zones in Myanmar.   Except for a few army barracks, there was no other government symbol that I noticed during my covert assignment in the region five years ago. Realising that it was futile to continue hostilities against the Nagas, Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s armed forces) firmed up an informal agreement with the NSCN-K in 2001, which was followed by a written pact on April 9, 2012.

The cozy relationship between the Nagas and Tatmadaw is likely to continue even in the absence of Khaplang since the agreement has been mutually beneficial. Tatmadaw has no reason to reverse its policies since it is already engaged in a war in Kachin and Shan States.

The strength of the Myanmarese army is slightly over 3 lakh and hostilities with the Nagas could mean diversion of resources from the war zones which it can ill-afford at the moment. This also explains why the government has been ignoring New Delhi’s repeated pleas to eliminate the camps for over two decades.  The Nagas have been behaving well and they have also allowed the Myanmarese language to be taught to Naga children. We met many young Myanmarese teachers in the villages we passed through, which means that the NSCN-K has also agreed not to secede.  Clearly, Khaplang’s demand for independence carried multiple meanings.   Last year, NSCN-K had also sent delegates to participate in the peace conference at Naypyidaw, the capital of Myanmar.  Its decision to abrogate the ceasefire with the Indian government two years ago was not sudden, but taken after careful deliberation, which also means that it is more interested to pursue its agenda in Myanmar. Khaplang had also assumed the role of chairman of a newly floated coalition of four groups, including the ULFA, two years ago which carried out a series of deadly ambushes against the security forces in the Northeast. All these operations were joint ventures and whether the cooperation can be sustained would depend on the role and disposition of the new chairman.

As per informed sources,  the Myanmarese army had also agreed not to harass NSCN-K’s allies from India’s Northeast, which includes as many as nine outfits from Assam, Manipur and an almost defunct group from Bengal. The Nagas are small in numbers, low on weapons and resources and they need these groups as much as they need them.  The presence of these rebel groups from the Northeast also serves many benefits for the Myanmarese army.  The camps of the Manipuri outfits in southern Sagaing Division opposite Manipur which are beyond the control of NSCN-K exist through an understanding with the army and annual payment of hefty sums of money. These camps and training facilities in the southern zone and the hideouts that have been set up by the militants in different areas of Myanmar are also unlikely to be impacted by the change of guard in NSCN-K.

Two strong contenders for the top position are vice president of the self-styled government,  Khangao Konyak, who hails from Nagaland and commander-in-chief Khumchok Pangmi. There are unconfirmed reports that Pangmi has already been chosen as the “caretaker” chairman of NSCN-K, which was condemned by a middle-rung functionary of the outfit based in Nagaland’s Mon. He was of the view that Konyak was the natural successor since he had occupied the second position with immense responsibilities for several years.

Earlier, differences had also cropped up on some vital issues between some senior functionaries and the Sumi group from Nagaland led by Nikki Sumi. It is hard to anticipate the future trajectory of the movement at this point of time, but clashes between Nagas on both sides of the border had broken out earlier.  

If the situation were to worsen, the possibility of these cliques deserting the camp in Myanmar and joining hands with the over ground factions of the NSCN-K in Nagaland cannot be ruled out.    

The writer is a senior journalist in Guwahati and author of Rendezvous With Rebels: Journey to Meet India’s Most Wanted Men