ANALYSIS
Stocks soared last week after the government grasped the nettle by raising diesel prices and the Fed announced its much-anticipated QE3 programme.
Stocks soared last week after the government grasped the nettle by raising diesel prices and the Fed announced its much-anticipated QE3 programme. The Sensex jumped 4% on week closing at 18464 while the Nifty finished at 5577. This bullish outcome was in keeping with expectations as I thought the strong Venus influence would likely to have the final say. The size of Friday’s gain was somewhat unexpected, however, as some of the midweek Venus energy was carried forward. Alas, my timing was a little off the mark. Optimism from the post-QE rally only began to subside much later in the day in US markets.
The long wait is over as Ben Bernanke finally pulled the trigger on a new round of QE. I had been fairly sceptical about what the Fed might do, so Thursday’s announcement did come as something of a surprise. On the other hand, the size of the programme to buy mortgage-backed securities was still quite modest at $40 billion per month, so one could argue this is not quite a bazooka that some had called for. However, Bernanke’s open-ended commitment to enter the bond market indefinitely suggests the Fed is drawing a line in the sand here. It will do whatever is necessary to reduce unemployment in the US and will take a more contingent view of inflation risks. This perhaps reduces the likelihood of an RBI rate cut as domestic inflation continues to be stubbornly high.
It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to this latest intervention. I have argued that we are less likely to see an extended QE-inspired stock rally as in previous Fed moves. I still believe that this QE3 rally will fall short of previous Fed-fuelled rallies as much of the gains have already occurred in anticipation of the announcement. In other words, it is quite possible we may “sell the news” here, give or take a few days.
The stars this week feel somewhat different from last week. Bullish Venus is more in the background while bearish Saturn takes more of the spotlight. I would, therefore, expect a more pessimistic outcome here. Pluto returns to forward motion on Tuesday just as it forms another exact square angle with Uranus. This may coincide with intense and unexpected situations. The Sun forms an alignment with Saturn and Rahu on Thursday which could also increase the probability of some stressful or uncertain circumstances, especially involving governments. These aspects suggest that a follow-through rally this week is less likely.
Crude oil also posted strong gains last week as fresh Middle East instability dovetailed with the market’s reaction to the Fed. WTI crude finished just below $100. This bullish outcome was in keeping with expectations as the strong Venus influence boosted sentiment in commodities across the board. This week looks less favourable, however, as Tuesday’s Pluto direct station and Wednesday’s Sun-Rahu aspect would appear to be less friendly to crude.
Gold also rallied on the QE3 news as the Fed’s latest foray into money printing pushed more investors into the inflation hedge. Gold finished the week near $1,775. Gold’s rally was also in keeping with our bullish expectations, although much of the weekly gain only occurred in Thursday’s session. Gold may be more prone to profit taking this week as the Sun enters Virgo. The mid-week Sun-Rahu aspect in particular looks problematic.
The writer is a neo-Vedic astrologer specialising in predictive astrology.
www.modernvedicastrology.com
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