Opposition’s crisis of credibility

Several weeks ago, diehard socialists organised a discussion titled ‘Unity of Progressive Forces’ to mark Madhu Limaye’s birth anniversary. Assembled speakers were a motley lot: Digvijaya Singh fresh after losing charge of a few states; Sharad Yadav; Sitaram Yechury; Atul Anjan of Communist Party of India; DP Tripathi from the Nationalist Congress Party, and several others. Among important opposition parties, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party were unrepresented. There were also no regional parties of significance at the gathering.

The main subject of discussion was opposition unity and speakers expressed views on whether a hold-all opposition bandwagon can be cobbled up for the 2019 elections. Undoubtedly, the subject was selected after taking a cue from the rout in Uttar Pradesh and Mayawati’s offer to ally with the SP. Though none of the leaders committed participation in a hold-all Opposition front in 2019, no one opposed the idea either. But a crucial question by a member of the predominantly fiftyish audience flummoxed Yadav. “In your youth,” he was asked, “you cried yourself hoarse shouting slogans against the Congress. The Bharatiya Janata Party, Jana Sangh then, was your ally and you even formed Janata Party with it. Later, you again ganged up against Congress. Now, three decades later, can anti-Congressism be replaced with anti-BJPism? Will people accept it?”

We are these days marking the third anniversary of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s unprecedented mandate. It is fair to contend that the decimation of the Opposition and limiting its appeal is one of his biggest successes so far. The victory of the Congress in Punjab notwithstanding, the recent Assembly elections re-established Modi as the most dominant political individual by far. India is on the anvil of another phase of single-party dominance, the kind witnessed in 1950-67 when there was no challenge to the Congress.

The pressure on opposition parties to become more serious about their primary job — critiquing the regime and posing alternatives — grew in the wake of Omar Abdullah’s much-discussed Tweets shortly after 10 am on March 11, the day of the most resounding verdict in a long time. “Forget 2019 and start planning /hoping for 2024”, he exclaimed. But most importantly, he emphasised — “BJP isn’t unbeatable but strategy needs to shift from criticism to positive alternate”. Blind criticism of the prime minister “would only take us so far”. Such frank admission was not appreciated by others and when vote share of parties was put up by the Election Commission by evening, electoral arithmeticians displayed their equations.

If SP, BSP and the Congress were in an alliance, Bihar Mahagathbandhan style, the BJP would have been routed. Electoral alliances are not one-night stands but must be preceded by issue-based coaction for several years. SP and BSP have a two decade plus history of bitterness and both talked of a pact only after the show ended. In India, a coalition of parties formed to challenge regimes does not always evoke enthusiasm because of poor track record. Anti-Congress parties were successful in 1977 because Indira Gandhi buckled under sustained Opposition campaign and an adverse judicial verdict. She also mishandled her mandate of 1971, secured by routing the Grand Alliance. Her slogan in 1971 was simple — ‘Woh kahte hain Indira hatao, Hum kahte hain garibi hatao’. Bereft of issues, if anti-Modi-ism becomes the adhesive for parties to come together, he will stroll to the finishing line juxtaposing the latest alliteration in his arsenal —MODI: Making of Developed India with the negative opposition campaign.

Elections are lost by ruling parties either due to self-goals — 2004 and 2014 being prime examples — or because of sustained opposition,  which targets chinks in the armour. Modi has rightfully claimed that in the past three years, the Opposition has singularly failed in building a single agitation against any of the government’s policies. Demonetisation may have been a disputable economic policy but secured overwhelming endorsement of people. Scores died in hardships faced in its wake but the Opposition failed to harness people’s woes. Opposition parties have turned lazy, epitomised by Rahul Gandhi who is yet to view politics as a full-time preoccupation.

Forging an electoral alliance for the next parliamentary polls should be the last item on the agenda of Opposition parties. Besides ensuring good governance and pro-people alternatives to the Centre’s priorities, non-BJP parties, if they wish to stage a comeback, require rebuilding credibility by collaborating on issues. An election pact must be the end of a political process. Unfortunately, a dialogue has been initiated with this as a starting point. Before overcoming the TINA factor and presenting a political alternative, Opposition parties have to project a vision for India that is different from Modi’s.

The writer is a Delhi-based journalist and author