Within four months of US President Donald J Trump taking office, the prospects for at least a working relationship between the US and Russia looks quite bleak, with both President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump describing the relationship as “practically at zero” and at “an all-time low”.

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True, the recent spate of hostility between the two countries is not a new phenomenon. In fact, President Trump inherited from his predecessor Obama a fragile relationship with Russia. However, what had raised expectations about a reset in the bilateral ties between the two countries was Trump’s praise for the Russian President Putin during the US presidential election campaign and Putin’s congratulatory phone call to Trump, expressing his “hope to work together for removing Russian-American relations from their crisis state.”

Undoubtedly, this symbolic overture by the two leaders was a well-calculated move to advance their national interests. For the Trump Administration, at a time when Putin is aggressively pursuing his expansionist policy towards Eastern Europe, improved relations with Russia help maintain a balance of power in this continent. Cooperation with Moscow was also expected to help the Trump administration in dealing effectively with the menace of ISIS in Syria. Trump has also realised that a reconciliatory approach towards Russia would enable the US to reduce its defence expenditure.

On the other hand, President Putin felt that Trump’s questioning of the significance of the NATO and his view on the Ukraine issue would greatly help expand Russia’s influence in eastern Europe. Trump’s desire to work with Russia to resolve international issues were also music to Putin’s ears. Since the Trump administration has indicated its plan for lifting the economic sanctions imposed on Russia, following its March 2014 annexation of Crimea, Putin had another reason to reciprocate Trump’s friendly gesture. The appointment of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, a 2013 recipient of the Order of Friendship from Putin, further sent positive signals to Russia.

However, even before the two leaders could take substantive efforts to strengthen their bilateral ties, congressional standing committees and the FBI began investigations into the allegation of Russian interference in the US presidential election. An immediate fallout of it was the resignation of Michael Flynn, Trump’s National Security Adviser and a strong supporter of Russia. The recusal of the Attorney General, Jeff Sessions also put pressure on Trump to reverse his approach towards Russia.

Trump’s view that the new START treaty is a bad deal favouring Russia and his statement suggesting that he is inclined towards removing restrictions on US spending on its nuclear arsenal hints to an abrogation of this treaty by him. If that happens, the race for acquiring nuclear arsenal between the US and Russia will be renewed.

As if these issues were not enough for US-Russia relations to sour, the US government also carried out an air strike against Syria, following an  intelligence report that the Bashar al-Assad government inflicted a poison gas attack on rebels killing 70 civilians This marked a new low between Washington and Moscow, with President Putin threatening serious consequences for attacking his ally. Trump’s U-turn over the relevance of the NATO has worsened the bilateral ties. In the meantime, the meeting between US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson with Russian President Putin in Moscow also did not succeed in reducing the climate of animosity between the two sides.  

There is little hope that the relationship between the two nations will succeed in fostering mutual engagement unless Trump and Putin make honest and calibrated efforts.

The author is Senior Researcher at the UGC Centre for Southern Asia Studies, Pondicherry University