West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has set her sights on leading the Opposition mahagathbandhan in what could well be an early Lok Sabha election. With Congress President Rahul Gandhi and UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi backing her over BSP leader Mayawati, the question is whether, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi said dismissively in a slew of recent interviews, such a mahagathbandhan would merely amount to “political adventurism”.  

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Banerjee though has already begun displaying a putative national leader’s airs. She was among the first to arrive in Chennai for DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi’s funeral. She does the rounds of Delhi’s power corridors on a regular basis. Most tellingly, Banerjee has acquired a taste for dynasty — the hallmark of a politician aspiring for a national role. 

The recent birthday party of her nephew Abhishek Banerjee’s five-year-old daughter was held at a massive ground that normally hosts wedding receptions. The entire TMC leadership was in fawning attendance, missing Parliament for the day. As one newspaper reported: “Last month, on July 25, there were almost no TMC MPs to be seen in the Parliament. Even TMC leader in the Rajya Sabha Derek O’Brien was missing, as were other notables. Mamata Banerjee’s parliamentary brigade had flown to Kolkata to attend the birthday party of five-year-old Azaana Banerjee. The turnout at the party, which included state ministers, leading bureaucrats and the who’s who of Kolkata, indicated very clearly that Abhishek is Mamata’s heir apparent. Most of the guests were adults, who simply wanted to mark their presence.”

Abhishek Banerjee, firmly ensconced as Mamata’s heir, has a peculiar way of expressing the TMC’s philosophy. Addressing a party event, Abhishek reportedly thundered: “No one, other than Mamata Banerjee, had raised her voice on behalf of the common people of the state. As long as Mamata Banerjee is here, if you dare to show your eyes, we will gouge them out and throw them on the road. If you raise your hand, we will sever it from your body.”

What sort of national leader would Mamata Banerjee make? Her economic policies would be largely guided by what she has achieved in West Bengal. In 2011-12, when she assumed office, the state’s GDP was Rs 5.38 lakh crore. In 2017-18, it has nearly doubled to Rs 10.49 lakh crore, a compounded annual growth rate  (CAGR) of 11.5 per cent. The state’s debt though has ballooned from Rs 1.93 lakh crore in 2011 to Rs 3.93 lakh crore in 2017. Interest payments bite deeply into tax revenue.

On relations with Pakistan and China, Banerjee’s inexperience would be exposed. She is prickly and recently cancelled at the last moment an official visit to China because “senior” officials of appropriate rank were not available to meet her in Beijing. The Chinese have promised new dates, but none have so far been forthcoming. Banerjee’s stand on Teesta river water sharing could prove a flashpoint with Bangladesh. Her relationship with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is at best formal, with an undercurrent of mistrust. 

Banerjee’s position on Pakistan is less clear. While she depends on the 28.5 per cent Muslim vote in West Bengal to stay in power, Pakistan cannot expect a radical change from her in India’s policy. She backs a resumption of dialogue with Islamabad though, as the leader of a disparate coalition that could be an early fatality, given the Pakistan Army’s continuing terror attacks on Indian soil. 

It is with the United States and other global powers like Russia that Banerjee’s lack of foreign policy experience will be most apparent. As chief minister, she has not travelled frequently, unlike Modi, who as chief minister of Gujarat for over 12 years had met senior leaders in the United States, China and Japan several times before he took office as prime minister.

Repairing India’s fractured social cohesion is where Banerjee may believe she stands the greatest chance of success. Her stand on the National Register of Citizens (NRC) though could alienate Assamese-speaking Muslims. The backlash will be swift if the mahagathbandhan she leads disintegrates — as it inevitably will, given the ideological and personal differences between its constituents. 

Watching from within the grand alliance will be the Gandhis. Rahul will treat Mamata very much like Sonia treated Deve Gowda and IK Gujral during the 1996-98 United Front government (which the Congress supported from the outside before toppling it) — night watchmen awaiting the return of the original dynasty. 

The clashing ambitions of Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav will complicate matters further. Mayawati is close to sealing a deal with the Congress on an alliance in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, which have a significant Dalit electorate. Akhilesh is meanwhile holding fast to the SP’s Muslim-Yadav (MY) vote bank and could see Mamata as a rival for his own future national ambitions. 

A violent brand of “secular” politics has propped up Mamata in West Bengal and demolished the thuggish Left and the clueless Congress, while opening up political space for the BJP. As she pursues her national agenda in collaboration with the Gandhis, Banerjee will be keenly aware of the fate of those who did the same two decades ago. IK Gujral passed away in 2012. But HD Deve Gowda is a phone call away.

The writer is author of The New Clash of Civilizations: How The Contest Between America, China, India and Islam Will Shape Our Century. Views are personal.