India needs to play its cards right with China and the US

Managing China’s assertiveness will remain India’s foremost foreign policy challenge for some time to come. But at a time when multiple factors are at play on the world stage, mere conflict avoidance with China, or trying to counter Pakistan’s cross-border digressions cannot be India’s sole priorities, nor would the tackling of these be an adequate indicator of a successful foreign policy. 

The re-ordering of the Post World War – II global order at the end of the Cold War made it necessary for India to re-orient its foreign and economic policies to remain relevant in an evolving world order where every variable was in a state of flux – making it clear that India would need to engage with a multiplicity of actors in a multipolar world. The end of the Cold War also meant the end of the US-led system of military alliances and an increasing power play between Russia, the US and China that we are witnessing today.

Therefore, what we see today is an evolving strategic and economic power play where the present century seems to be characterized by multiple and competing sources of global power. As China, India, Russia, Japan and other nations gain strength across various dimensions of power – political, military, economic and cultural – shifting patterns of major power dynamics have become more critical to the future of the international system.

How India responds to the emerging great powers and their realignments would be important. Can India, therefore, shed its tendency to procrastinate and put in place a policy that is interest-driven? At the same time, can India deliver on promises made to sustain its relations with partners? Unfortunately, while India’s net economic power has grown and it is expected to emerge as the 5th largest global economy, it has so far not taken advantage of its positives which reflects a failure on our part and in our relations with the world. We have been too diffident and prudent and this cautious approach has so far prevented us from playing a leading power role.

India’s response to the evolving security architecture has been one of caution and a reluctance to be drawn into any formal alliance. It also seeks to avoid getting entrapped in the great power tussle between Beijing and Washington and has therefore adopted some kind of a hedging strategy to balance its interests in Asia’s competing power circles. While this diversified strategy of broadening relations with key players has its merits, it also calls upon the Indian establishment to maintain the momentum and take concrete steps to elevate relations. 

Despite strategic differences with China, India is negotiating and remains engaged with China both economically and in resolving the border issue. At the same time, India sees merit in adopting a policy of localized balancing by strengthening economic and defence partnerships with regional powers in the Indo-Pacific. As India hedges both with China and the US, its engagement with Japan and other regional powers becomes important as it helps create a positive regional Balance of Power. This is something that needs to sustained and further strengthened.  

After Russia was suspended from the G-8 in 2014, it seems to have made strong moves to integrate with the East, most notably with China. While we debate the nature of Russia-China relations, Japan and Vietnam seek to strengthen economic, strategic and diplomatic ties with Russia. India already has a robust relationship with Russia and is thus well placed to act as a facilitator of a stronger coalition to ensure a polycentric world that will allow the regional countries to best serve their common economic and strategic interests vis a vis an assertive China. 

While the US under Donald Trump has continued to woo India, and India too seems to see advantages in forging a closer strategic partnership with the US, it will need to adopt a policy that will defend its own core interests.  
Ideally India would need to opt for some kind of a global strategy to balance its relations between the US, China and Russia. Despite the unpredictability of the US under Donald Trump, it continues to remain an important variable in the global system though an unreliable one. It is a complex picture as all US allies are worried about US reliability thus creating a scenario where everyone is cultivating everyone. 

For India, therefore, the challenge is to extract the maximum for itself from the great powers and build upon the positive dynamism that exists in its relations with both the US and Russia, while at the same time mending fences with China. This cannot be a one-way street. India needs to pursue a pragmatic policy through strengthening defence and economic relations with its important strategic partners. So far India has shown a systemic failure to take key decisions that would create greater synergy with partners in an area where India lacks capacity. Can we overcome this hesitation and optimize our opportunities in our quest to emerge as a major player in global geopolitics?

The author is Senior Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation