Nepal is gearing up for its most testing electoral exercise since it became a multiparty democracy in 1991 after a popular movement forced the autocratic monarchy to become a constitutional one, which later transformed into a federal republic.

COMMERCIAL BREAK
SCROLL TO CONTINUE READING

The provincial elections are to be held on November 26 and the election to parliament on December 7 under a new constitution which took years to be written to the satisfaction of key players in Nepal’s fragmented politics. In the election to parliament, 165 members would be elected directly and 110 through a system of proportional representation.

This election is different from any other held in Nepal since 1991. That historic event was held by an interim coalition government of the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) under a new statute which made the constitutional monarchy and a multiparty system the twin pillars of democracy.

However, successive governments were revolving doors with a string of prime ministers, and coalitions of every conceivable — and inconceivable — permutation and combination taking turns at the office. Both democracy and development took a hit during the decade when the NC, the CPN-UML and the royalists of (the two factions of the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) took turns at opportunistic partnering of one another. The multiparty democracy was reduced to a sham and the government a mere charade for the pursuit of partisan and personal interests of venal politicians. In the process, political parties were thoroughly discredited.

The Communists split and the Maoists struck out on their own to wage a “People’s War” which claimed thousands of lives until the liberal parties were compelled to talk to them and create conditions for their entry into parliamentary politics. During this period, the monarchy — even after it was stricken by a palace massacre — sought to make a comeback, but in vain.

In 2005-2006, India played a discreet but decisive role in brokering a deal between the NC, the UML and the Maoists to pave the way for the latter’s entry into electoral politics. The Maoists enjoyed widespread support and were a force to reckon with, but they had to be persuaded to give up violence and their arms. India played a big role in disarming them despite mischief by certain dubious external agencies.

The deal saw the CPN-Maoist Centre led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias ‘Prachanda’  winning the 2008 elections. The elected House became a constituent assembly tasked with drafting a new inclusive constitution, which would do justice by ensuring proper representation to the Terai’s Indian-origin people Terai (Madhesis).

The drafting process got prolonged with parties back to their bad old ways of forming and breaking alliances and coalitions. Consequently, the next election, in 2013, was also for a constituent assembly; and, this too witnessed a series of crises as well as prime ministers.

The only difference in the succession of governments this time was that the Maoists were part of the revolving door politics and the RPP of regrouped royalists emerged as Nepal’s Hindutva face. There also emerged other parties and fronts, including militant ones in the Terai, which challenged the power of the Kathmandu-based parties.

At last, despite the Madhesis not getting their due — for which New Delhi did its best — Nepal got a new constitution, which was promulgated despite Indian opposition. There followed the “economic blockade,” a downturn in India-Nepal relations and a worsening of the domestic political situation with China looming large on the scene.

It is against this background that the fraught situation in Nepal needs to be viewed. An NC-Maoist coalition is in government, but the coalition partners are at war. After elections were announced, the Maoists led by Prachanda, the UML of former prime minister K P Oli and Naya Shakti Nepal of a former Maoist prime minister Baburam Bhattarai formed a Left Alliance (LA). This LA is to fight the election unitedly and, thereafter, merge into a single party.

The LA has a huge advantage over the faction-ridden NC and the RPP, and is perceived to be the front-runner in the upcoming polls. This has not only shaken the other Nepalese parties but also caused alarm in New Delhi. The prospect of the LA winning the elections has also created concern in European capitals which, like Beijing, are interested in Nepal’s political twists and turns. New Delhi’s apprehension is that under the LA, Nepal may lean more towards China.

The pre-election atmosphere in Nepal is vitiated amidst fears of the election itself being scuttled by the NC Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, who has inducted eight new ministers to stonewall the Maoists. Since the Maoists cannot be sacked from office after the election process has begun, Deuba has stripped Maoist ministers of their portfolios. At the same time, he is wary of what President Bidhya Devi Bhandari may do to clip his wings. Both the LA and NC are worried about the role of constitutional bodies like the Election Commission and the Supreme Court. Since 2008, the EC and the SC have been packed with political favourites by every party during its time in office.

How these political appointees play their hand at this critical juncture — when conspiracy theories abound particularly about the election being put off — may determine the fate of Nepal. It is no less of a challenge to India which has to reckon with the growing Chinese influence in Nepal.

The writer, an independent political and foreign affairs commentator, is the author of the book State of Nepal. Views expressed are personal.