China’s Achilles heel, Hong Kong

When a million plus people turn out for a demonstration of solidarity against an attempt by any government to impose restrictions, it draws the attention of people around the world.

It particularly happens when the city centre, where the people gather, happens to be in Hong Kong, the quasi city-state which is a part of China but has a separate currency, many different laws and a fair degree of autonomy under a system called ‘one nation, two systems’.  On a visit to Hong Kong a few months ago I assessed its liberal and transparent system right from the immigration itself; a happy experience to enter a country without cold stares and unsmiling faces. Obviously, the people of Hong Kong love their liberties, the structure of administration left as a legacy by the British colonization for a hundred years, an independent judiciary, large stock market and freedom of expression. All of it survived the transition to PRC control in 1997 at the end of the British lease, but that was because of the larger vision of China’s Chairman Deng Xiaoping who initiated deliberations on the transition as early as 1984. Deng’s pragmatism was based upon the ‘golden goose’ theory; nurture and preserve the city-state in its existent avatar for the good of China. In 1997, the minuscule Hong Kong possessed $85 billion in its foreign exchange reserve and in theoretical terms, its GDP was 20% of China’s  GDP.

At the beginning of June 2019, a leaderless congregation of Hong Kong citizens commenced a protest completely ignoring the fact that it was also the thirtieth anniversary of the infamous Tiananmen Square massacre, the event China would like the world to forget when similar protests were crushed by Chinese tanks. This time it was a progression of the ‘umbrella movement’ of 2014 when the citizens demanded universal suffrage but China persisted with pre-approved candidates for the election of Hong Kong’s chief executive. The same chief executive, Carrie Lam lately decided to initiate legislation to amend the law of extradition such that anyone arrested in Hong Kong could also be repatriated to mainland China for trial. Although the trigger for the commencement of the process was a crime by a Hong Kong citizen committed in Taiwan, it is also true that fugitives from the law escape China’s less than transparent laws and stay in Hong Kong away from the long arm of Chinese law; it’s to send them back to mainland China and prevent them any protection under Hong Kong’s more humane and transparent legal system. 

While China was happy, it did not anticipate the reaction of the people and that too just around the thirtieth anniversary of Tiananmen. 

The truth is that Hong Kong’s GDP contribution has slipped to just 3% within the Chinese economy which has made huge strides but that does not dilute its importance. According to The Economist, many international companies choose Hong Kong because it is well connected with China’s huge market. It also upholds the same transparent rules that govern western economies; a robust stock market and export of manufactured goods from Shenzhen.

Over 1,300 big ticket companies are headquartered in Hong Kong. Making Hong Kong just another Chinese city would not be in China’s interest, especially now with huge trade issues with the US. All this exists because of the concept of ‘one nation two systems’ which is allowed it till 2047. The 50-year agreement was probably accepted by China not only for the economic advantages it gained, but also with a presumption that the last generation which grew up under British rule would retain the liberal outlook while later generations would progressively integrate and come under Chinese influence. Elsewhere, as in Xinjiang, China has used extreme coercion against its citizens.

China could adopt such coercion against the people of Hong Kong too.

The Chinese perception of its national interest always remains mysterious. It spurned the International Court of Justice award on the South China Sea, executed large scale demographic change in Tibet and today has incarcerated a million Uyghur in Xinjiang besides allowing the community no religious freedom or even basic human rights. China is fearful of the fact that the western nations perceive the ‘one nation two systems’ as something which will influence dissent within China. It will also perceive that this isn’t the best of times when coercion can be used; better would be to wait and watch with a policy of deliberate and slow change. US President Trump is reported to have decided to flag the issue with President Xi Jinping at the upcoming G7 meeting.

The protests in Hong Kong’s streets haven’t died down although Carrie Lam has virtually apologized. However, the protestors are demanding her resignation. China is also apportioning blame on her after initially supporting her in the legislative quest. In reality, Carrie Lam is irrelevant; it is the approach that China adopts towards dissent in the future which will decide which way the protests go. Lam will go but when a pre-approved chief executive is once again foisted upon the citizens of Hong Kong it could be a repeat of the umbrella movement of 2014. Surveys among the citizens have revealed that 34% of the population wishes to emigrate and as full and firm integration in 2047 approaches over the next few years, this number will only grow. China’s predicament is a piquant situation. Allow liberal values and systems and suffer the possibility of the liberal virus spreading far and wide in the mainland; disallow, use coercion and consequently suffer the wrath of international disapproval, potential turbulence of proportions which could be unmanageable and also unpredictable economic consequences. 

Already many of the undercover leaders may have escaped  Hong Kong anticipating a Chinese crackdown but in today’s world, leaderless movements can cause as much harm.  

Although tremendous interest has been shown by Indian media towards developments in Hong Kong, India must play this pragmatically. While it does champion causes of liberty and freedoms worldwide it must refrain from anything which will be perceived as interference in China’s internal affairs. The emerging relationship with China demands full awareness of its Achilles heel while adopting pragmatic silence unless circumstances are altered so much that it necessitates a different approach. 

The author commanded the 15 Corps in J&K