An outline of the Third Front in the making

If mid-term polls were to be held now, the two national parties – the Congress and the BJP – would not have together touched the three hundred mark. Why three hundred? There are even doubts about these parties, claiming to have a nationwide presence, together surpassing the majority mark of 272. There is hardly any need to explain the possible poor performance of these two parties? The scam-tainted Congress has lost its credibility and is on a weak wicket in states which were previously its bastions. The BJP remains geographically handicapped, unable to find a toehold in much of the South and also in the East.

So, if the Congress and the BJP each have an unimpressive tally – Congress is expected to fare worse – then who captures a bulk of the five forty plus seats? Not the UPA allies – the DMK does not have high expectations at a time when the AIADMK has just crawled back to power and the honeymoon period with the electorate has only just begun. The NCP is not expected to outperform the Congress in a dramatic fashion in a tired Maharashtra where the Congress and its regional ally have together ruled for over a decade now.

The BJP allies, on the other hand, may not fare as disastrously but even then they, too, would fail to impress. The Shiv Sena figures may not shoot up amazingly in the crowded political map of Maharashtra. The Shiromani Akali Dal has already outperformed itself by warding off an anti-incumbency tide in Punjab and is not expected to repeat the astonishing feat. Nitish Kumar and his JD (U) may surge ahead but given the Kurmi leader’s intense dislike for Narendra Modi, the JD(U)-BJP relationship might be an unsettling, rocky affair.

If there are such palpable weaknesses on either side, then who corners a majority of the seats? It is not too difficult to guess that the beneficiaries of the popular vote would be a whole host of regional parties which have no experience of having done business with each other. For Mulayam Singh Yadav, who hopes to bag more than thirty seats in a caste-fractured Uttar Pradesh, it may not be easy to enter into a stable partnership with a mercurial Mamata Banerjee, notorious for setting unilateral terms when entering into working relationships within a coalition.

Before we focus on the egoistic nature of each of these regional leaders (one cannot really expect Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati and J Jayalalithaa to agree on everything), let us try and define the shape of the alternative arrangement which may take over Delhi with possible outside support of either the BJP or the Congress. As of now, one can visualise two different and definite shapes of a possible Third or Fourth Front (whatever nomenclature we choose to use) emerging from the current political mess. None of the shapes are well-formed but there is a distinct shadowy impression of what the picture might be once the political developments become more transparent in the days to come.
First, we got a serious glimpse of a revival of the possible Third Front on September 20th when a motley group of parties came together to protest against the fuel price hike and FDI in multi-brand retail. Sharing the dais were the Left leaders, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party leadership, N Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam and former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda of the Janata Dal (Secular). Except for Mulayam and to some extent the Left, the others like Gowda and Naidu are bit players because it is not widely anticipated that they would have the necessary political resources to perform majestically in the coming polls.

This Third Front may not really travel a long distance unless it is supported by the likes of Navin Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal or Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK. If Mulayam is going to be an integral part of it, then Mayawati is going to stay away. Continued from page one
Similarly if this older Third Front has a fresh lease of life, then there is no reason to hope for Mamata Banerjee’s participation because she would never cohabit with his arch enemy - the Left.

Frankly, the future of this particular Third Front appears bleak.
On the other hand, Nitish Kumar has opened a channel of communication with Mamata Banerjee and the two are consulting each other on a number of contentious issues concerning federalism or Centre State relations. Occasionally, they have drawn in another eastern chief minister, Navin Patnaik of Orissa into their conversation. Some political observers have described this move as the emergence of an Eastern Block. Many have labelled this potential alliance the Federal Front because there seem to be a possibility of an expansion of this block with Patnaik keeping in close touch with Jayalalithaa while Mulayam’s party flirts with the Trinamool Congress without distancing itself from the Left.

This Federal Front may gain from a probable political reconfiguration after the poll. Now it has a vague outline of sorts and seems in a position to benefit from the participation of Mamata, Nitish, Naveen, Mulayam, Jayalalithaa and even the Jagan Congress.

There will be one or two parties in this group which may be tempted to join the coalition led by the bigger parties but they might just spring a major political surprise by sharing a single platform and insisting on the outside support of a major national party.

Diptosh Majumdar is national affairs editor of DNA.