All eyes on K’taka: Dramatic moves & counter-moves

On the morning of the 17th of May, BS Yeddyurappa was sworn in as the 19th Chief Minister of Karnataka. This despite the fact that the BJP with 104 seats in the 224-member assembly, are still 8 seats short of the halfway mark. The Congress-JD (S) alliance, a hasty and opportunistic one by all counts, has predictably reacted with outrage. They went to the Supreme court to challenge the Governor Vajubhai Vala’s invitation. But the Governor is well within his rights to invite the single-largest party to have a shot at forming the government by proving its majority on the floor of the house. This agnipariksha, or trial by fire, Yeddyurappa and the BJP are scheduled to face on Saturday.

In this instance, the governor is following what has come to be known as the KR Narayanan formula. In the present situation the Governor has an additional justification that the Congress and the JD(S) did not have a pre-poll alliance. In fact, they did not contest elections on a single plank, but rather as separate entities often cutting into each other’s votes. If only they had worked out their joint strategy earlier, they may have legitimately formed the government by now. Therefore, from the point of view of Rajdharma their claims seem scarcely more valid, if at all, than the BJP’s. The BJP too, according to some reports, would have easily crossed the half-way mark had they polled a few thousand votes more, so close was the contest in several constituencies.

The real question, however, is not be constitutional at all. No doubt, the BJP will try its best to demonstrate its legitimacy in the floor test to come. How they do so is a matter of speculation. The Congress MLAs have been herded together and may even be shifted to another state to prevent defections and betrayals. However, even such coercive or cautionary practices are far from foolproof. Those who wish to deceive or rebel, tempted or cajoled by whatever means, will do so in the end. Speculation is rife about the various stratagems and plots that will be used to break the opposition alliance and ensure that the BJP government does not fall.

After all, Karnataka, has somehow, become a prestige issue for the BJP and for the Congress-JD(S). Neither side wishes to lose the state. For the Congress it is a desperate battle for its very survival. No wonder they have not hesitated to ditch their former Chief Minister Siddaramaia in favour of the junior partner in the alliance, Kumaraswamy Gowda. For the BJP, winning and ruling Karnataka seems like a lucky omen before the 2019 Lok Sabha general elections.

This brings us to the key issue: what is good for the people of Karnataka? As an asli Bangalorean myself, I can confidently say that this important state, the techno-hub of India, deserves better governance and cleaner administration regardless of who is at the helm of affairs. The Congress on its own was not able to win enough seats to show that they could run the state to the citizens’ satisfaction. The poll results are nothing short of an anti-incumbency verdict against them. JD (S) on the other hand as a distant third in the final tally, certainly does not enjoy the confidence of the people. Being an out of power regional party, their primary aim is likely to be to fill their depleted coffers rather than give Karnataka what it needs and deserves. Therefore, purely from a point of view of what is good for the state a prospect of a Congress-JD (S) government, should the BJP fail its floor test, is not an attractive proposition.

The BJP, short of a simple majority or precariously ahead after some skilful skullduggery, is scarcely a better option, especially under the leadership of the somewhat tainted Yeddyurappa. Perhaps, the BJP would have been better off with another leader as their chief ministerial candidate, someone younger, more dynamic, and with a cleaner image. What is important to the people of Karnataka is a stable government rather than any odd and expedient political arrangement.

Of course, the BJP’s being in the power at the Centre makes a BJP-run Karnataka the better of two dubious or unstable political formations. Here is where the real challenge lies. Will the top brass of the BJP rise to the occasion and not merely ensure that their Government survives the floor test but is also able to serve effectively through its entire five-year term? If they are unable to do so would it not be better to renounce the fruits of office and wait it out patiently in the opposition benches?

The author is a poet and professor at JNU. Views expressed are personal.