A fight between secular and communal forces

Several years ago when a third front government was in power, one recalls BJP leader LK Advani storming at a press conference, “Everyone is trying to isolate the BJP and this is going to end.” It was a statement that was not reported by most of the newspapers, but explaining it to this columnist later Advani said that this ‘isolation of the BJP’ game would not work, and he was determined to put an end to it.

He did, by working assiduously at coalitions with the BJP reaching out to the regional war lords, and ensuring levels of support that finally brought the NDA to power. The isolation had ended and Advani more than others in the party was triumphant. More so, as the political veteran had realized that India had entered an era of coalitions with a one party rule — while still an urban middle class dream — arousing suspicions in the districts of the states.

With one hard stroke the RSS and its cohorts in the BJP have pushed the party back into what one television channel described as “majestic isolation” with the decision to push Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi for the prime minister’s post. A highly divisive and polarising individual, Modi has made no overtures to hold back the regional allies who are packing their bags and moving out of the alliance post haste.

At this point in time the BJP thus is set to face the 2014 election on its own with perhaps just the Akali Dal by its side. It will have to get at least 180-200 seats for the other regional parties, like the AIADMK, to look at it afresh after the elections. A figure short of this mark will keep Modi and the party out of the reckoning when the government is formed in New Delhi. Interestingly, while most sections of the BJP are worried, Modi and his cronies seem to think that they are on the path to victory, and the ride will actually be fairly smooth.

The Hindutva agenda is being revived in full, with Modi and tainted Gujarat leader Amit Shah targeting Uttar Pradesh for the supposed turn around. The campaign was to be launched from Ayodhya but after a meeting with LK Advani, Modi has had second thoughts about starting his campaign on the Vishwa Hindu Parishad set Hindutva agenda. Development and administration, however, will soon form the background of a hard, communal campaign where polarization is being seen by the BJP as the key to victory.

The Congress party is desperate to wrest the development card from the BJP, and marry it to the secular card that it hopes to inherit as a result of Narendra Modi’s divisive politics. But this hope has been dashed by the entry of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar into the fray, after severing ties with the BJP over Modi, and with development and good administration figuring high on his report card.

Nitish Kumar has become a credible face in Indian polity, with influential sections of the middle class not averse to him leading a government at the centre. He seems to have the support of regional parties like the Biju Janata Dal that is actively seeking a non BJP, non Congress alliance for the centre. Others are sure to follow, with Nitish Kumar currently in the midst of meetings with what the media likes to dub as the third and fourth front parties.

Modi’s rise has gotten mired in controversy, within the BJP itself and now within the NDA that had managed to stem the tide of time under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and LK Advani. This has cut into the euphoria, with stalwarts in the BJP seriously taking stock of the party’s prospects in the general elections under the leadership of the Gujarat chief minister. Amit Shah and Modi will find that Uttar Pradesh is very different from Gujarat, with amazing complexities that even shrewd politicians like Vajpayee found difficult to handle and resolve.

Besides Shah and Modi have dropped in from the Gujarat skies, which in itself will create resentments and anger within the already fractured BJP in UP. And thirdly, unlike Gujarat, where Modi has never really faced an opposition from the weak and ineffectual Congress, two strong regional parties , the Samajwadi and the Bahujan Samaj parties, exist in UP and are not going to relinquish their turf without a major fight. The going, in other words, is going to be tough and if the Hindutva card that Modi is trying to drum up does not work — and it probably will not — he will be left with little to show for his dramatic entry into national politics.

 The Congress prime ministerial face Rahul Gandhi — now even PM Manmohan Singh has offered to step out of his shoes for the Nehru-Gandhi scion — is being projected by an unthinking media as the counter to Modi. This is highly unlikely now with the entry of Nitish Kumar who, in all probability, will rise to become the main contender against the BJP and Modi with the pre-poll support of the regional parties and perhaps the Left that has had several meetings with him as well. Kumar has acquired an urban and rural acceptability in recent years, and can use it to good advantage in the coming weeks and months.

Nationally he has the highest credibility amongst the regional leaders, followed by the Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik whose support thus will add to the emerging formation’s credibility.

In one sense it is fast becoming a contest between communal and secular forces, with development remaining the base. Earlier, with just the Congress and the BJP in the picture, the electoral battle was between the right and the extreme right. Now the left-of-centre politics has asserted itself, with secularism, peoples’ struggles, social equity and federalism entering the campaign.

It is early days to predict the outcome, but not too early to gauge the picture that will see the Congress with its few allies like the Nationalist Congress Party and the National Conference in the fray; against the BJP with the Akali Dal and little else at this stage; against the regional and Left forces that are still taking shape. This will prevent the Hindu consolidation the BJP is hoping for, with the regional parties looking at a strengthened rather than weakened support base at this moment in time.

Calibrated and principled decisions in politics are taken rarely, but when they are, they can upset even the seemingly entrenched apple cart. As in the proverbial hare and tortoise story, Narendra Modi after a heady start is on shaky legs now long before reaching the finish line; and Nitish Kumar despite the slow beginning is catching up from behind.

The writer is a senior journalist and author.