Venezuela chaos as inauguration with no president looms

Venezuela faced political turmoil and the possibility of new elections on Friday when it became increasingly unlikely that President Hugo Chavez would recover his health in time to be inaugurated for a new term next week.

The government, which has given only vague updates on his condition since he flew to Cuba for emergency treatment, admitted that Chavez's condition had worsened. "The president has faced complications as a result of a severe respiratory infection. This infection has led to respiratory deficiency that requires Commandante Chavez to remain in strict compliance with his medical treatment," said Ernesto Villegas, the information minister.

Close aides and relations have flown to Havana for what some have interpreted as a final goodbye to Chavez, 58, who has dominated Venezuela for 14 years. In recent days, his parents, six brothers and four children are reported to have flown to Cuba.

Chavez, who has previously acknowledged that he was suffering from cancer and endured several rounds of treatment, is due to be sworn in for another six-year term on Thursday.

Exactly what would happen if Chavez is still in hospital when inauguration day arrives is unclear. Under Venezuela's constitution, if the president dies or is "permanently incapacitated", new elections must be held within 30 days. In the meantime, the president of the national assembly should take over as interim ruler. But Chavez's aides claim there is still time for him to recover - and they are are understood to be urging a postponement of the inauguration. The oppositon say this would be unconstitutional: it wants independent medical experts to be sent to Havana to assess the president's true state of health.

Henrique Capriles, the opposition leader, won 44% of the vote in last October's presidential election, the best showing that any opponent of Chavez has achieved.

Straight after this relatively narrow victory, Chavez promoted Nicolas Maduro, the foreign minister, to be vice-president and the favoured successor. But Diosdado Cabello, the president of the national assembly, would take over temporarily if the president dies. A power struggle between the two leading "Chavistas" could be looming.

Some opposition activists fear the next president could be more repressive than Chavez. Francisco Toro, 37, the founder of the Caracas Chronicles blog, said: "We did figure out some things with Chavismo in the last 14 years, which was they were not going to start rounding up people and throwing them in gulags. That's for poor countries. Chavez could afford to spend his way out of those mass support problems.

"We figured we were quite safe in that they were not going to start rounding up and shooting us. But we don't have that certainty any more."

If he takes over as president, Maduro could prove more intolerant and ideological than his mentor, Toro said. "We don't know who Nicolas Maduro could turn out to be," he added. "In any kind of cult of personality regime, this kind of transition could be a transition to something worse.

"The worst thing that could happen is that you have this kind of prolonged agony, where they manage to stabilise Chavez so that he's not dying but he cannot govern - and that goes on for weeks or months." he said.

George Ciccariello-Maher, a Venezuela specialist at Drexel University in Philadelphia, said he expected the inauguration to be postponed. He added that a power struggle was unlikely because Maduro had been lined up for the presidency. "Chavez's supporters are of course upset by the situation," he said. "They are coming to terms with the fact that Chavez will not be around forever."

Whoever leads Venezuela will control the world's biggest oil reserves: 296?billion barrels according to BP's World Energy Review, compared with 265 billion in Saudi Arabia. Oil production has been falling because of inefficiency and corruption in PDVSA, the state energy giant that has provided the cash for Chavez's ambitions.

Venezuela's leader will also have to cope with the world's highest level of violent crime. Last year, 21,692 people were murdered in Venezuela, more than in America and the 27 members of the European Union combined. In 1998 - the year before Chavez took office - the number of killings stood at 4,450.