Obama’s gambit on Afghanistan and Pakistan pays off

Getting Pakistan right is key to president Barack Obama’s gambit for winning the Afghanistan war, and judging by the capture of a slew of Taliban commanders in Pakistan, Obama is suddenly in better shape on the AfPak front.

Reading Pakistan’s motive is tough, and it is possible that the latest flurry against the Taliban is a “temporary pressure-release action” to appease Washington. But if Pakistan continues to go after the Afghan Taliban then the odds of success for US efforts in Afghanistan shoot up, analysts said on Thursday.

The capture and killing of Taliban leaders, including Baitullah Mehsud, Abdul Ghani Baradar and Mullah Abdul Kabir, in Pakistan is weighty. The Pakistani Taliban and the Haqqani network who only a year ago enjoyed protection in Pakistan are now being hunted.

“The hammer and anvil approach in Afghanistan — with Nato’s Marjah offensive serving as the hammer and Pakistani forces across the border acting as the anvil — may at last be working after years of losing ground to encroaching Taliban, who had years to regroup from their safe haven in the tribal regions of Pakistan,” said Newsweek.

The US magazine said a stalemate that critics a year ago — including Newsweek — worried might turn into “Obama’s Vietnam,” now has a chance of becoming the “Obama Surge,” with an aura of success reminiscent of George Bush’s reassertion of control in Iraq in 2007-08.

“The US has really put the pressure on Pakistan behind the scenes to take actions coordinated with the Nato ops in Afghanistan and this is evidence of that,” said Parag Khanna, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation. “It’s too soon to tell how far it will go,” he added.

Obama’s envoy Richard Holbrooke, national security adviser Jim Jones and secretary of state Hillary Clinton have kept intense pressure on Pakistan’s generals. Holbrooke nicknamed “The Bulldozer” for a reason, has been vigilant in monitoring Pakistan’s compliance.

Obama had sent a letter to president Asif Ali Zardari in November which included a blunt warning that Pakistan’s use of insurgents to pursue its policy goals would no longer be tolerated. The letter also offered more economic aid and help easing tensions with India. The US is looking beyond Thursday's meeting of the foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan in New Delhi in calling for “direct talks” at the highest political levels. India has been wooed by senior US officials pledging to help keep Pakistan in line.

On balance, the US has assured Islamabad that it will have a bigger voice in the political future of Afghanistan without resorting to extremist allies. For the time being, Islamabad is hitching its wagon to Washington’s strategy.

“Given that the US intends to start withdrawing from Afghanistan next August, and therefore feeds Pakistani fears of being abandoned, I would lean toward interpreting this as a tactical rather than a strategic move by Islamabad,” cautioned Douglas H Paal, vice president for studies at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“My impression is that Pakistan has again dealt with a period of strong American entreaties with a measure of cooperation. Fortunately, the captured individuals are important sources of information. Whether this anticipates further cooperation remains to be tested,” added Paal, a senior Asia adviser for the Reagan and Bush administrations who has also been an analyst for the CIA.

The tetchy ISI-CIA relationship has improved since 2008. Pakistan has been feeding intelligence to the US drone assassination program operating inside the country. It gave permission last month to US intelligence to station personnel in Karachi.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton told Congress that her department was seeking $3.2 billion for Pakistan during the next fiscal year, which begins on October 1 to combat extremism and promote economic development.