The contradictions of the Arab Spring were never lost on Israel. For years it held itself up as the Middle East's only democracy, surrounded by vicious and anti-semitic dictatorships. Now other countries are following suit, but in the consequent turmoil life is becoming more dangerous, not less.
The contradictions of the Arab Spring were never lost on Israel. For years it held itself up as the Middle East's only democracy, surrounded by vicious and anti-semitic dictatorships. Now other countries are following suit, but in the consequent turmoil life is becoming more dangerous, not less.
Israel's Western allies were also quick to grasp this, tempering their enthusiasm for political reform with caution. But the surprise in Western capitals at the imminent Gaza war is a sign that the real risk may have been overlooked. This is not just the old battle between Israel's militarism and the Arab world's hostility and paranoia, with a dash of popular feeling thrown in.
There is no overwhelming demand on the Egyptian street for the newly elected President Mohammed Morsi to take on Israel, despite what you might have read, and even if it watches televised images of Gaza hospitals with the same horror as before.
Rather, what the Arab Spring has done is to change the strategic calculations. Israel, Hamas, neighbours like Egypt and the Gulf's small but rich play-maker Qatar all have new points to make.
Hamas is an off-shoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. The bonds that unite its branches are strong and Hamas feels its time has come. Gaza is now part of a swathe of the Middle East where Islamists lead, from Morocco eastwards.
Their popularity might soon peak - so what better time than now to test Israel's readiness to deal with them? This has less to do with democracy than political alliances: for the first time, Hamas can be sure that other Arab leaders will stand alongside it, literally in the case of "human shields" such as the Egyptian prime minister, Hisham Qandil, who visited on Friday, and the Tunisian foreign minister, Rafik Abdesslem, yesterday (Saturday).
Qatar, whose emir visited last month, is an even fancier friend - a sugar daddy whose strategic importance makes it untouchable by the West.
The Arab Spring has been very bad for Hamas's previous backers, the regimes in Iran and Syria. By forcing a confrontation, it is showing the world it no longer needs them, that it has grown stronger, not weaker.
For Egypt, much is to be gained by playing along. No one is expecting it to send in troops, but Morsi's quest to regain the country's much-vaunted "historic leadership" of the Arab world does not need them. So limp has been Egypt's response to such conflicts in the recent past that even token gestures can impress - withdrawing its ambassador, or Qandil's acts of solidarity. Moreover, the further Israel and Hamas progress on the path to war, the more statesmanlike Egypt will appear if a ceasefire is called.
As for Israel, there seemed to be some sort of expectation, not least in the White House, that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should bend to fit the new regional status quo. Washington is right in thinking that Netanyahu's bullishness in regard to Israeli settlements, as over Iran, does not appear to be based on a long-term vision of "how this will end".
All the more reason, in Netanyahu's view, to stay steadfast. If Israel's security-first agenda, its ruthlessness towards the Palestinians, were to deviate in accordance with regional politics, all would be lost. The red lines stay the same, the response likewise.
In the echo chamber of Middle Eastern diplomacy, it is hard to hear what is being said behind the scenes. One presumes that underneath America's public support for Netanyahu, the voice of caution is audible. Whether Netanyahu will yield over Gaza as he has done so far on Iran is another matter.
Conversations with Morsi will be even more uncomfortable. The contemptuous pragmatism with which Washington treated President Hosni Mubarak is no longer possible. Worse, Washington has few sticks to wield: the linkage of Egypt's financial aid to its continued recognition of the peace treaty with Israel means it cannot also be used in other negotiations. The cards are in Morsi's hands, and it remains to be seen what demands he will make in return for his co-operation.
ISRAEL
Active service personnel: 176,500
Reserve: 565,000 (includes army, navy, air force)
Aircraft: 461 combat aircraft, mainly US-made F-16s
81 helicopters, including Cobras and Apache gunships
Tanks: 3,500, including 1,524 63-ton Israeli-made Merkavas
Iron Dome anti-rocket system: directs missiles by radar to shoot down incoming rockets. Range 2 - 40 miles.
Naval ships: 70, including corvettes and coastal patrol boats)
GAZA
25,000 Hamas militia (Ezzedeen al-Qassam Brigades)(estimate)
2,000 other militia (Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Popular Resistance Committees, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine) (estimate)
Armed with machine-guns, landmines and rocket-propelled grenades.
Qassams and Grad rockets. Range 15 miles, 20 kg of explosives
Fajr 5. Range 46 miles, 90 kg of explosives
OTHER INFO (updated Sat AM)
Palestinian casualties in last week: 38 (at least seven children)
Israeli casualties in last week: 3 dead
Rockets fired at Israel from Gaza: 680
Israeli air sorties against Gaza: 780
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