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Unlike previous outbreaks, severity of ongoing Ebola epidemic impossible to predict: Study

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A mathematical model which was supposed to predict the Ebola outbreak has now been ruled out to foretell its severity, reveals a new study titled Epidemiological Dynamics of Ebola Outbreaks by the University of Warwick.

Dr Thomas House, of the University of Warwick's Mathematics Institute, developed the model that incorporated data from past outbreaks that successfully replicated their eventual scale.

According to House, the research showed that when applying the available data from the ongoing 2014 outbreak to the model now, it was "out of all proportion" and on an unprecedented scale when compared to previous outbreaks.

House stated that his team was able to analyse the data from past outbreaks and were able to design a model that works for the recorded cases of the virus spreading and  successfully replicate their eventual size. However, the current outbreak does not fit this previous pattern and, as a result, they are not in a position to provide an accurate prediction of the current outbreak.

Chance events are an essential factor in the spread of Ebola like many other contagious diseases. They could include a person's location when they are most infectious, whether they are alone when ill, what the travel patterns are like of those with whom they come into contact with, or whether they are close to adequate medical assistance.

The Warwick model successfully replicated the eventual scale of past outbreaks by analysing two key chance events; the initial number of people and the level of infectiousness once an epidemic was underway.

Discussing possible causes for the unprecedented nature of the current outbreak, House argued that there could be a range of factors that lead it to be on a different scale from previous cases; factors such as mutation of the virus, changes in social contact patterns, or some combination of the two with other factors.

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