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Rohingya crisis: Mass exodus a 'humanitarian catastrophe', can raise security risks for the world, says report

The report was released by the International Crisis Group

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A day before Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh asked five eastern states sharing boundaries with Bangladesh to be extra vigilant against influx of Rohingya and illegal immigrants through the porous Indo-Bangla border, a report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) warned the mass flight of Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar’s Rakhine state has created a humanitarian catastrophe and in the process raised serious security risks.

The report - Myanmar’s Rohingya Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phase - by the ICG, an independent organisation headquartered in Belgium, which sounds alerts to prevent deadly conflict and shape policies for peace, has warned the mass flight of Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar’s Rakhine state has created a humanitarian catastrophe and serious security risks, including potential cross-border militant attacks.

 “The international community should press Myanmar to urgently implement the Annan commission’s proposals, including as regards discrimination, segregation and citizenship,” the report which was released on Thursday read.

Pointing out how in just three months, more than 6,24,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled Myanmar to Bangladesh, the ICG said that the rapid exodus of the Rohingya community is far from the end of the crisis. Drawing upon extensive research carried out by local researchers in Myanmar and Bangladesh, the report reveals and explains the events that led to militant attacks and warns of the domestic and international risks ahead. “Organisers and fighters from the ARSA militant group are now in Bangladesh refugee camps. The group may shift to cross-border attacks which could escalate tensions between the Myanmar and Bangladesh and even lead to clashes between their respective militaries.”

Close on the heels of the UN Human Rights Council emergency discussion on the subject on December 5, ICG explains why any imposition of international sanctions is unlikely to produce positive change and could make matters worse given the strong national consensus on the Rohingya issue.  

As the world struggles to define a response, and as the crisis enters a new, fraught and highly uncertain phase, the report underlines, several important elements need to be borne in mind. “First, there needs to be continued insistence on the right of refugees to return in a voluntary, safe and dignified manner. At the same time, the grim reality is that the vast majority of the Rohingya in Bangladesh will not be going home any time soon,” it says and highlights, “This presents the enormous humanitarian challenge of sustaining lives and dignity in the largest refugee camp in the world. It also presents grave political and security risks that need to be addressed, including potential cross-border attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) militant group and possible transnational terrorism.”

ICG analysis of population data for northern Rakhine state from various sources suggests around 85% of the Rohingya population has fled to Bangladesh over the last 12 months. There are also some 3,20,000 Muslims in central Rakhine State, many, but not all of whom identify as Rohingya; 120,000 of these have been confined to displacement camps since communal violence in 2012.

 

In addition to the massive Rohingya exodus, the crisis also led to the displacement of some 27,000 non-Rohingya villagers and government employees in northern Rakhine, most of whom fled the initial ARSA attacks and subsequent clashes. Nearly all moved or were evacuated inland, to the main towns of Maungdaw, Buthidaung and Sittwe. The government is now strongly encouraging them to return and begin rebuilding their damaged or destroyed houses.

The report warns that if ARSA launches cross-border attacks, it could aim at opportunistic security targets in northern Rakhine or turn to attacking any non-Muslim villagers resettled on Rohingya lands, an easier target. “Inevitably, such attacks would have profoundly negative consequences. They would escalate tensions between Bangladesh and Myanmar and could potentiallylead to clashes between the two countries’ militaries.”

It further alerts how international jihadist groups represent a far bigger security threat to Myanmar. “The country has justified what it calls clearance operations by arguing the nation faces a terrorist threat. This could be a self-fulfilling prophecy,” says the report, “The plight of the Rohingya has captured the attention of the Muslim world, becoming a cause célèbre like perhaps no other since Kosovo. Al-Qaeda, Islamic State and other jihadist groups, which have long issued statements of solidarity with the Rohingya for propaganda purposes, are now calling directly for attacks on Myanmar and its leaders.”

The ICG report admits the international community faces a major challenge. “In the face of ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity, the political and moral imperative to take action has become overwhelming. The huge reservoir of international goodwill for Myanmar and for Suu Kyi personally that existed prior to the crisis is rapidly drying up. Many countries wish to support Myanmar’s transition away from military rule, and have no desire to undermine its first democratically-elected government in more than 50 years. But given the strong perception that the diplomatic channel is not producing results, and with public views hardening in many countries in the West and the Muslim world, the imposition of sanctions by Europe and the US seems inevitable.”

 

 

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