Winter of Discontent: What explains the biggest uprising in Iran since 2009

In the largest protests in Iran since 2009, demonstrators in large numbers have taken to streets against the government's policies. So far, 21 people have been killed in different parts of the country as security forces have launched a crackdown against alleged violent demonstrations, arresting hundreds. 

The nationwide protests pose one of the biggest challenges to its religious and civilian leadership since the unrest in 2009 that shook the theocratic nation. Protests have drawn tens of thousands of people and further calls have raised the possibility of the country going into a fresh bout of instability. 

The protests have also taken many in the world by surprise as Iran keeps a tight control on the flow of information through its state-regulated media. 

When did the protests begin? 

The protests began on Thursday, December 28, in Masshad, the second-largest city in Iran. The city is considered holy among world's Shiite Muslims as Reza, the 8th Shiite imam, is buried here. 

The next day, protests spread to the capital Tehran, and other major cities including Rasht, Kermanshah, Isfahan and Sari. 

The protests on Tuesday entered on its sixth day. 

How did protests begin?

Protest began against high prices of basic items like eggs in Masshad and then with its spread, protesters started raising slogans on various other issues. Demonstrations that initially focused on economic hardships and alleged corruption quickly turned into political rallies. 

Some of the issues that have been raised by the protesters are rising prices, unemployment, economic inequality and foreign policy. Some of the slogans chanted during the protests are -  "Death to Rouhani", "Forget Palestine", "Not Gaza, not Lebanon, my life for Iran".

Some analysts suggest that conservatives began the protests as a means to pressure President Hassan Rouhani, who is considered a moderate in the theocratic government. However, the protests now transcend conservative issues. 

What are protesters demanding?

Media reports coming from Iran say that the demands of protesters cover a range of issues, from foreign policy to social problems. 

Reuters reported that protesters are demanding higher wages and an end to graft. Iranians are also demanding change in foreign policy in the Middle East, where Tehran has intervened in several countries in a bid to have more influence in the region than its arch-rival Saudi Arabia.

They are also demanding a stop to financial support to Palestinians and the Lebanese Shi‘ite group Hezbollah and instead focus on domestic economic problems, reports say.

Protests against clerical leaders or government?

While some of the slogans like  "Death to Rouhani" are against the government policies, protesters have also chanted against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 

Is theocracy the reason behind protests?

Reports say that some demonstrators even shouted “Reza Shah, bless your soul” during protests, a reference to the king who ruled Iran from 1925 to 1941. Reza's Pahlavi dynasty was overthrown in 1979 by religious leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Shah and his successors were against "clerical influence" in the government and such slogans indicate that some anger also stem from the theocratic rule of nearly 38 years.

How serious are the protests?

Political protests in Iran are very rare incidents as security forces keep very tight vigil. The participation of such a high number of people across the country for five days indicate that the protests are serious in nature and may continue for days or even months. This is the biggest protests the country has seen since the unrest in 2009 following the re-election of then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Unlike the unrest in 2009, the protests appear to be spontaneous without any clear leadership which has posed a bigger challenge for the government. 

The leadership is also not taking the protests lightly, which was visible from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's statement on Tuesday accusing "enemies of the Islamic Republic of stirring unrest."

Has Iran had similar protests?

Iran has faced small-scale demonstrations against economic hardship or local environmental crises in the last decade or so but the biggest crisis for the leadership was in 2009 when the country erupted in protests following disputed re-election of Ahmadinejad. People thronged the streets against alleged election fraud by the then President.

How are the protests different from 2009 unrest?

The major difference was that the 2009 protests were against Ahmadinejad and did not target the Supreme Leader who managed to control the uprising. The time for Iran was, however, more difficult in 2009 as protests coincided with Arab revolts in the region.

In contrast, latest protests are isolated from other countries in the region. 

Could protests lead to regime change in Iran?

Regional rivals of Iran and the Western powers are looking at the protests with a hope that it could lead to regime change in the country. Many in the US have openly voiced their hope for the change including President Donald Trump who said it  was "time for a change" in tweet on Monday. On Tuesday, he said the US is "watching" as the "people of Iran are finally acting against the brutal and corrupt Iranian regime."

It is still premature to predict the outcome of the protests. Also, weakening of the Iranian government could lead to more chaos in the already volatile Middle East. 

How has the government responded?

The government has so far not used brute force and has warned against only "violent protest". There have been 10 deaths in the clashes between demonstrators and security forces. While the government controls mainstream media, Internet is the biggest challenge for the authorities. The National Security Council has decided to block social media and messaging apps to restrict the flow of information. 

Rouhani has also said that the government would allow peaceful protests while warning against violence. In case the protests get out of hand, the government can call upon the military to take control of the situation.