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As Donald Trump pulls out of the Paris Agreement, what next?

Economists have signalled towards dire consequences the American economy will have to face, and foreign policy experts have started to see a weakened America on the global stage

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Is America under Donald Trump losing its sheen in the international arena? It is a pertinent question to seek an answer to, particularly more after America’s withdrawal in fighting the ‘war’ against climate change. Two weeks on, the international community, its leaders, climate experts are still trying to wrap its head around the decision of President Donald Trump.

Was he bluffing when he said that the Paris climate accord not only ‘intrudes on its sovereignty but also imposes a heavy economic burden’? After all the Paris Agreement allows each country the independence to craft it’s own commitments, which are not legally binding. So, was he damn serious?

Either way, it raises questions, doubts and concerns.

First, what next for the Paris climate agreement, which came into being after years and years of failed deliberations and negotiations? And where is America, and the world heading under Donald Trump?

Today, populism is at its pinnacle. Nations are turning inward, with some preferring to go in seclusion — like in the case of America. But when it comes to the matter of the planet, the world stands united in tackling global warming. They understand that changing climate is a global problem, with an existential threat, with sweeping economic implications. They understood the gravidity in 2015, when 196 nations agreed unanimously to tackle climate change. And they understand that once again. Therefore, Donald Trump’s decision to stay out of the climate deal has not broken the unity, nor does it change the contours of the agreement, or halt the process.

US’s withdrawal paves way for countries like France, Germany, China and India in reconsidering their ‘environmental’ contributions. It provides them with economic opportunity in developing energy and renewable technologies, along with bringing together new partnerships and allies. Europe has started to look east towards emerging countries like India and China who are committed to their pledge to save the planet. Prime Minister Modi, on his recent tour to Europe was very vocal when he said India would ‘go above and beyond’ to help save the planet. Similarly, China too re-affirmed its commitment when their Premier visited Germany at the same time as Modi.

However, having said that, it has definitely rendered the debate contentious. There are some who are arguing that without American interference the deal would become stronger. And then there are many like Luke Kemp, a climate-policy expert at Australian National University, who recently pointed in his journal Nature Climate Change, “A ‘rogue’ US can cause more damage inside rather than outside the agreement”. More nations could withdraw themselves or the nations would not transparently report their greenhouse gas emission. After all, the United States of America, since the end of the Cold War, have been considered as the world ‘hegemony’. What the US does or does not do, in an abysmal manner, is connected with the rest of the world. As Robert Kagan had stated in his work titled, The World America Made, ‘without America the world will be less attractive, for it is the US hegemony which helped promote peace, prosperity, and political liberalisation, and American power continues to be important in maintaining world order.’ But all this was then, in the pre-Trump era. Now, with a ruler like Donald Trump at the helm, Robert Kagan will have to mince his own words.

Donald Trump is not a political leader of the usual kind. His narcissist flamboyance and weird ignorance about politics and policies reveal an unconventional characteristic for a politician. A leader with no ideological sophistication, he possesses a reckless absurdity. He seems inclined to speak the unspeakable, think the unthinkable, and deliver the unfathomable, like he did with the Paris Agreement. His irrationality in one single stroke has ceded the role of America as ‘world leader’, to being seen in the same light as those of ‘rogue states’ (Nicaragua and Syria are not part of the Paris agreement —Nicaragua because it objected to the voluntary nature of the commitments). Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, Trump has inflicted harm on the stature of America. As Washington Post wrote on June 2 this year, “ Trump has just declared war on the United States of America.” The reputation and stature, the panache and the authority that the US enjoyed once upon a time, today has been battered, not only internationally, but even within the periphery of America.

Economists have signalled towards dire consequences the American economy will have to face, and foreign policy experts have started to see a weakened America on the global stage.

As for the world; the world has swayed from the times of symbolically rich democratic rules to unconscionable autocratic rules, having rulers with an appealing pragmatic ideology to rulers possessed with cruelty and draconian outlook. From Churchillism, Thatcherism, Nixonism, Stalinism we have entered today into the realm of Trumpism. We had survived those rules. We will survive this too, particularly more because, in the Trump era, we are also plagued with similar problems — climate change and terrorism.

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