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ShareAre India and China heading towards another border conflict? The rising graph of border incursions and aggressive patrolling seems to indicate a sharpening of tensions between the dragon and the elephant.
According to the Indian army chief, there were 21 Chinese incursions in June, 20 in July and 24 in August. Between 2006 and 2008, Chinese intrusions doubled from 140 incidents to 270.
What's China trying to do? Is it itching for a conflict? Or is it trying to build up pressure for Indian concessions in some other sphere? And what should India do in response? DNA spoke to Gordon Chang, avid China-watcher and author of The Coming Collapse of China, to look for answers. Chang was clear that India needs to stiffen its resolve and push-back against China's "aggressive, hostile" border incursions.
Excerpts from the interview:
What are China's geostrategic calculations in relation to India?
China sees India as an adversary and wants to destabilise it. Even in the 1970s, China transferred nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan to keep India in check. China has supported terrorists who operate in India, China supports Pakistan and is making trouble in Nepal. Chinese border incursions into India will continue until India starts speaking out in public and pushes back. Right now, you have Indian politicians who refuse to criticise China. Beijing thinks India won't react, and can be pushed around.
Is there a risk of a repeat of the 1962 war?
There could be, but my concern is that India isn't doing enough to protect its border claims. Someday, a Chinese incursion will go wrong, and they'll end up killing some Indian soldiers, and we'll see a flare-up, but India isn't as prepared as it needs to be.
The Chinese are starting to believe their own propaganda and what idiots in the West say about China's rise. They see themselves as a dominant power in waiting and are flexing their muscles.
How should India respond?
First, India needs to understand that China is an adversary. Indian politicians need to talk in public about aggressive, hostile China and what it means for India. India also needs to do more to reinforce its border; it needs better infrastructure so it can get troops and material to the frontlines quicker.
Is America's 'absence' in Asia emboldening China?
It is. China thinks it has a free hand to do as it pleases and has stepped up its aggression against its neighbours. They've probably figured it right that the US won't respond - preoccupied with domestic economic problems and healthcare reforms. The Obama administration also misunderstands China: it thinks the US needs China and shouldn't upset it and ignore what it does. It's going to lead to trouble in the future.
How much of China's aggression is driven by domestic political and economic compulsions?
China has a number of problems - Tibet, Xinjiang, and an economy in trouble - and all of them are unfolding simultaneously. I'm not sure China has a coordinated strategy of thinking "we have trouble at home, we need to start a border war." But you have a situation where Chinese leaders are acting aggressively for any number of reasons, since they're not getting any pushback.
