Sino-US relations to evolve with Jinping’s US visit

As China’s vice-president Xi Jinping meets US president Obama in the White House on February 14, the stage will be set for the world’s solitary superpower and the rising Asian economic and military power, aspiring to share equal responsibility in international affairs, to exchange views on a range of issues at a time of palpable tension in their ties. In addition to bilateral trade and economic issues, the focus will be on strategic matters.

The US will seek to further its global strategic interests, including military deployments in the Asia-Pacific, while balancing Beijing’s concerns. China will, in turn, try and obtain US assurance that it will not encroach on its ‘core interests’ namely Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang. The South China Sea and China’s maritime territorial claims, though no longer designated as areas of ‘core interest’ by Chinese officials, will certainly figure in discussions. While the Chinese government has been careful and guarded in its comments, Chinese military commentators and the official media have described US actions in the area as hostile. The US initiative in Myanmar will be an area of concern.

Washington will view the visit as an opportunity for improving relations and securing Beijing’s cooperation in the UN Security Council. China is, additionally, the world’s second largest economy and USA’s second largest trading partner. Its monetary policy and cyber activities will be discussed. It is building a military capability that has compelled the US to factor that in its military planning.

China, which imports 11 per cent of its oil requirements from Iran, has resisted US pressure for international sanctions and instead suggested dialogue. US officials hope, however, that Beijing would gradually reduce oil imports from Iran. North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme is a source of continuing concern to the US. It hopes that Beijing will persuade Pyongyang, at this sensitive time of transition, to recommence negotiations for dismantling nuclear weapons.

Human rights and Tibet will be on the agenda, but the US is unlikely to push hard on them. This was indicated in Washington’s cautious and circumspect response in the high profile case on February 8, when Wang Lijun, the police chief of Chongqing, walked out of the US Consulate in Chengdu after a stay of a few hours once he was denied political asylum reportedly on instructions from Washington. Reports circulating on China’s web deride Wang Lijun for seeking asylum in the US, but simultaneously speculate that the incident could adversely affect the chances of another high profile ‘princeling’, Bo Xilai, for a position in the all-powerful nine-member Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo Standing Committee.

Xi is scheduled to meet president Barack Obama at the White House on February 14 and later his official host, vice president Biden. He will meet US congressional leaders, members of the Cabinet and give a policy speech in Washington on February 15. Xi Jinping will visit Iowa, a state which he visited in 1985 with a provincial delegation. He will halt in Los Angeles on February 16 and 17 for business-related events. He is expected to announce and conclude a series of business deals during the visit.

Born in 1953, Xi Jinping, as the son of a party veteran and former vice premier is a ‘princeling’. He is tipped to take over as general secretary of the CCP and chairman of the Military Commission at the 18th Party Congress scheduled for this October.

The National People’s Congress is likely to appoint him president in March 2013.  The tone of this visit and how both leaders handle strategic issues, of what each describes as the most important bilateral relationship, will determine how Sino-US relations evolve during this decade. Recent US initiatives in the larger Asia-Pacific region ensures that the visit will be closely monitored by countries in South and South East Asia, particularly to see whether Washington yields space to Beijing on issues concerning the region. The visit will be of special import as Xi Jinping will, from around the end of the year, lead China through this decade. It is a period of transition for both countries as the US Presidential elections are due by the end of this year.

Domestically too, the visit is important for Xi Jinping. It is his first to the US as  presumptive CCP chief and president. Party cadres, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers and others in China will closely follow the visit to see whether Xi Jinping shows signs of weakness. They will judge whether he has been able to wrest any concessions from the US including getting the US to reiterate its position regarding ‘one-China’ etc. An important section who will watch the visit will be Xi Jinping’s detractors. Atmospherics and protocol will predictably matter.