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Extra match on the cards? How Liverpool, Arsenal or Manchester City could face play-off for Champions League spot

For a one-off play-off match to happen, two teams have to have identical points, Goal Difference and Goals Scored at the end of the league.

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(L - R) Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola, Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp and Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger (Photo credit: GettyImages)
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The Premier League  is headed for a mouth-watering finish with it's final round of matches to be played on the coming Sunday. There is a realistic possibility of Manchester City, Liverpool or Arsenal playing a play-off to determine qualification for next season's Champions League.

Going into the last round of fixtures, the three teams - occupying third to fifth place - are separated by just three points with similar Goal Difference (GD) and Goals Scored (GS). This means that there is a possibility of two teams finishing joint third or fourth - necessitating a one-off play-off match.

The point to note here is that for a one-off play-off match to happen, two teams have to have identical points, Goal Difference and Goals Scored at the end of the league.

Here's the points table as of now:

Goals scored by City, Liverpool and Arsenal as of now:

City: 75

Liverpool: 75

Arsenal: 74

Here are the final fixtures of the three teams in question:

Manchester City: Watford (Away)

Liverpool: Middlesbrough (Home)

Arsenal: Everton (Home)

The top three teams will qualify directly for the Champions League group stage, while the fourth placed team will enter the preceding qualifying round. The team that finishes fifth will, of course, qualify for the Europa League.

Here are the rules stated by the Premier League:

"If at the end of the season either the league champions or the clubs to be relegated or the question of qualification for other competitions cannot be determined because two or more clubs are equal on points, goal difference and goals scored, the clubs concerned shall play off one or more deciding league matches on neutral grounds, the format, venue and timing of which shall be determined by the board."

So here's a look at the likely scenarios:

1. Manchester City vs Liverpool - Third place play-off

This match will only be possible if City play a high-scoring draw in their last game and Liverpool register a thumping win. For example, a 3-3 draw for City and a 3-0 win for Liverpool will warrant a third place play-off match between the two teams. This is because both teams will then have 76 points, GD of  +36 and 78 GS.

2. Manchester City vs Arsenal

A heavy defeat for City and a narrow win for Arsenal could lead to this contest.

For instance, a 4-0 loss to City and a 1-0 win for the Gunners will lead to both teams having 75 points, GD of +32 and 75 GS.

This scenario could get further complicated depending on Liverpool's result. Arsenal and City could have to play a third/fourth place play-off if Liverpool lose their final game, or a fourth/fifth place play-off if the Reds win.

3. Liverpool vs Arsenal

A play-off between these two teams will be possible if Liverpool lose by a two goal margin and Arsenal play out a scoring draw. For Example, if Liverpool lose 2-0 and Arsenal draw 1-1, and so on. Then both teams will have 73 points, GD of +31 and 75 GS.

This scenario would mean City finish third irrespective of their own result in the last game.

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