The Ashes: Easy series win for England? No, they are not that good

If the shock removal of Mickey Arthur motivates Australia to perform above themselves then it is absolutely vital that England do not play with any hint of complacency. That is going to be the most important factor for us.

If the England guys think all they have to do is turn up to win, then they are going to be in for an almighty shock. Australia have dangerous seamers and I expect them to have a good day or two and bowl England out for below-par scores.

But overall the strength of England's batting is a bit deeper than Australia, Graeme Swann is a far better spinner than Nathan Lyon and although the Aussie wicketkeeper Brad Haddin can bat a bit you would have to back Matt Prior against him.

Our key players are James Anderson, Prior, Swann and Kevin Pietersen. For me if they stay fit and the team play near their best then England will win the series. But we should not think everything is perfect in the England camp. It is not.

England have two big question marks. Joe Root has done brilliantly for a 22-year-old batting at five or six, coming in against the old ball. But suddenly he has been pushed up to face the much harder new ball, which bounces more and always offers some lateral movement.

The ball swings and zips off the turf quicker and the opening bowlers are fresh. It will be a different ball game, so do not expect too much from him. Then there is Jonny Bairstow. He is a talented young player.

The last time he batted for England he was in great nick. He had made a 100 for Yorkshire and a half-century for England at Headingley and 26 not out in the second innings.

That was May 27. Then we had the Champions Trophy and all he did was carry the drinks. He did not bat out in the middle for 35 days and has only had three innings, one Twenty20 for Yorkshire and England's warm-up match against Essex, since the Headingley Test.

For the Champions Trophy England kept him in the squad just hanging around. So what chance has he got? It is ridiculous preparation for an Ashes series and facing some serious fast bowling.

The kid is on a hiding to nothing. What chance has he got to play well for England and for himself? His career is going backwards. Since Arthur's sacking I hope the Australian players have had a hard look at themselves. They might just have concluded that they were mainly to blame for his removal. Results for Australia have been poor.

But the stark truth is various individuals have not scored enough runs or taken enough wickets. You can talk about cultures in teams and head coaches but how much impact do they really have? The players got the coach the sack and they have to pull their fingers out and improve. Darren Lehmann played for us at Yorkshire for 10 years.

The members and players adored him. He gave everything. Batted fantastically and was straight talking. I hope he will not be shy of telling a few of his players that their individual performances have not been good enough. Some of those players need a kick up the bum and to realise the Australian board are not about to sack two coaches, one after the other, so if they do not knuckle down they will be the next ones for the chop. Was it such a mistake to change the coach at the last moment?

I believe if it is not right in the dressing room and the team are not pulling together then it is better to shake it up now than wait for later. Putting it off until after the Ashes series would not work. It never does. In 2006 in India during a Champions Trophy tournament I wrote that England's coach Duncan Fletcher had shot his bolt and that England should remove him.

That was before the 5-0 whitewash in Australia that winter. Various media people and ex-players felt it would be stupid, that it would upset the team and throw a spanner in the works. Mike Gatting was one who disagreed, Christopher Martin? Jenkins in The Times as well and my friend Jonathan Agnew was another. They were wrong. Under Fletcher and captain Andrew Flintoff we were awful. Then we went to a World Cup in the West Indies and played even worse.

There were incidents with the players, such as Freddie falling off his pedalo, and finally the England and Wales Cricket Board relieved Fletcher of his position. Sorry, they allowed him to save face and resign with a handsome payout. England dithered and paid the price.

The lesson? If it is wrong, change it. So all the upheaval may lift the Australians and make the guys focus. This will make it a bit harder for England. For so long now we have all thought England were easy favourites to win and Australia must be mad sacking Arthur. Some say roll on the Ashes, we will give them a good hiding.

But will we? Are we that good? I don't think so. At our best we are better than Australia but favourites do not always win. That is why there are so many rich bookies.