Rio 2016: India can win medals in six sports - Viren Rasquinha

It is Olympics time again. And, much like every Olympics, this will be a litmus test for India. You prepare every four years for an Olympics cycle and for every nation, it is an important event. There is a lot of money, time, investment and resources that go into preparing for the Games. It will reveal where India stands against the rest of the world. There's no doubt that we must take it very seriously.

I think we will win approximately the same number of medals that we won in the 2012 London Olympics, which was six. We should take that as the base figure. We might get a couple more, but I don't see more than that.

Whether it means that India has progressed as an Olympic nation or is stagnating needs to be seen in an overall perspective: how close athletes came to medals, did they do their personal best and such other parameters.

Medals are not the only parameters to gauge that. It is, of course, the most important one, but we should keep things in perspective and not expect an exponential jump in medals. India is not going to double their medals tally. If we reach double figures, it's going to be outstanding. But it's going to be extremely hard.

The reason for that is that winning an Olympic medal is extremely tough, because the margins are very fine. Take for example the ISSF shooting World Cup in Baku that was held in June. A majority of the top shooters who will be there at the Olympics were participating across all events. Both Abhinav Bindra and Gagan Narang reached the finals, and went out seventh and sixth, respectively. So sometimes, you can be so close to an Olympic medal, and yet so far. Olympic medals will be lost in millimetres. The bottom line is that expectations should be realistic.

In terms of medal winners from the last Olympics, we have three who will not be going this time: Sushil Kumar, Mary Kom and Vijay Kumar. But Gagan, Saina Nehwal and Yogeshwar Dutt are all very strong medal hopes this time around as well.

Over and above that, I think India can win medals in six sports:

1. Shooting: We have virtually everyone who can win a medal in shooting. I think this is, by far, the strongest Indian contingent that will be going to an Olympics. Every single shooter has managed to reach at least the final of the World Cup over the last two years. So, shooting is definitely our biggest bet for a medal/medals at Rio.
2. Women's archery team: They are strong contenders.
3. Badminton: Saina Nehwal is a really strong contender as well.
4. Boxing: It will be close for Vikas Krishan and Shiva Thapa, but you can't count them out.
5. Wrestling. Here we have Yogeshwar. And, I believe Vinesh Phogat is a very strong contender as well.
6. And lastly, tennis can also be another medal prospect for India.

I would rate archery, tennis and badminton on the same level as shooting, boxing and wrestling which are India's strengths. The chances of winning – or not winning – a medal are more or less the same. These six disciplines are the ones in which India have a realistic chance of an Olympic medal.

If you look at the medals table from the London Olympics, the top 10 or 20 nations in the world win at least 80 per cent of their medals from just four sports. It means that focus is very important. For India, these are the six 'focus' sports, with shooting having the highest chance of winning a medal. So, for a country like India with limited resources as compared to countries like USA, China and Great Britain, focus has to be critical.

Hockey can spring a surprise. I was really impressed with the way the men's team played in the Champions Trophy, and the final was one of the best matches I have seen India play in over four-five years, and the best I have seen them play against Australia in 10 years.

Having said that, we still need to beat Ireland, Argentina, Canada, and no team is going to be easy right from the first game. I'm not even thinking of a medal, honestly. We first need to get to the quarterfinal stage. I'm being very conservative and trying to temper everyone's expectations, because everyone directly talks about winning a hockey medal. I don't want to be negative and pessimistic, but I'm just tempering expectations.

A special mention of the women's team qualifying to the Olympics for the first time in 36 years. It is a fantastic achievement, full marks to them. But again, to expect them to finish under 10th is unrealistic. People should realise that the team getting into the Olympics is itself a big thing.

Also, talking about women, all eyes will also be on Dipa Karmakar, who is a great sports story of our country, and so is 48 kgs weightlifter Saikhom Mirabai Chanu. India desperately need more women heroes and role models. Here's to more power to them.

As for the other sports, I would be pleasantly surprised if someone wins a medal. But if you look at consistency and data over the past five years, that is not going to happen. It's not that for four-five years, you come 20th or 25th in the world and then you suddenly win a medal at the Olympics. It does happen, but as an exceptional case. It will not happen under normal circumstances.

In these sports, I personally feel that every single Indian contingent member who goes to the Olympics should at least try and better their personal best. They need to do better than last time or better the national record in sports where it is possible. That's what the aim should be. Medal chances in these sports will be tough, but they need to push themselves to improve their marks.

However, if I had to pick two dark horses for a surprise medal, it would be hockey and athletics.

One thing we should look at in Rio is a gold, which we didn't have last time. But the difference, again, is very marginal. For example, Jitu Rai lost the gold in the ISSF World Cup by 0.5 points. So those are the margins that we are looking at.

We didn't have the best of build-ups in sports like wrestling and tennis, with controversies around its selection. It's not ideal. But as an elite athlete, you have just got to deal with it. These things happen. Selections in every country for a mega event like the Olympics are always controversial, and there will be some acrimony or the other. But as a professional sportsperson, you have just got to take it in your stride.

There's no one more experienced than Leander Paes when it comes to that. It's just unthinkable that someone can go to seven Olympics. When I was playing in 2004, people would say this will be his last Olympics. They said the same in Beijing, and again in London. Now he is going to Rio as well! So professional athletes take problems, challenges and controversies in their strides and just move on. The sun will still rise tomorrow.

Let's hope it does for India in a month's time.

The writer is a former India hockey captain with 180 international caps. He participated in the 2004 Athens Olympics and is currently the CEO of Olympic Gold Quest.

THE SIX PROSPECTS

1. Shooting
2. Women's archery team
3. Badminton
4. Boxing
5. Wrestling
6. Tennis

Quotes

I think we will win approximately the same number of medals that we won in the 2012 London Olympics, which was six. We should take that as the base figure. We might get a couple more, but I don't see more than that

As for the other sports, I would be pleasantly surprised if someone wins a medal. If you look at consistency and data over the past five years, that is not going to happen. But if I had to pick two dark horses for a surprise medal, it would be hockey and athletics

THE OLYMPIC STORY

The first-ever Games after war
Post the World War II, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) decided to hold the Games in 1948 with the objective of spreading peace among countries. London, which was scheduled to host the Olympics in 1944 that was eventually cancelled, accepted the offer to play hosts despite the short notice. A total of 59 countries and around 4,000 athletes competed across 136 events in the historic event. With the Games being held shortly after war, countries like Japan and Germany were not invited, while the USSR did not participate along with a few African nations including Kenya.

FUN FACTS

* Olympics was earlier celebrated as a religious festival from 776 BC to 393 AD
* Host Greece won the most number of medals (47) at the first-ever Games in 1896
* Till 1994, the Olympics were held every four years. Since then, the Winter and Summer Games have alternated every two years

WORDSWORTH

If you don't have confidence, you'll always find a way not to win
--Carl Lewis, American athlete