Manchester United are in decline and must invest in the market

Manchester United are but two results from securing their 20th league title. Were Manchester City to drop points at Newcastle this lunchtime, United would recover the position of favourites they so recklessly threw away a fortnight ago. Were it to happen, were Patrice Evra to get his hands on the silverware next Sunday, Sir Alex Ferguson would be forgiven for thinking it the most extraordinary victory in even his glittering career.

Because never before will he have won the game's main domestic honour with a team in such obvious, urgent need of attention. And this is the irony that would accompany a United triumph. City, while vanquished, will not require much to turn them from a good side into a dominant one.

Win or lose, the couple of purchases they need to add a bit of championship sealing glitz will be made anyway. Robin van Persie, Eden Hazard, Daniele De Rossi: the targets have largely already been identified.

United, on the other hand, even if they win the Premier League, need immediate shoring up in most departments, with midfield their most pressing priority. They may be close to a first step after Borussia Dortmund's 23-year-old Japanese midfielder Shinji Kagawa was reported as saying he will be playing at Old Trafford next season.

He could be a welcome addition. Certainly, the evidence of their shortcomings has been abundant all season. In Europe they won but one home tie, and that against the Romanian qualifiers Otelul Galeti. It was not against Barcelona or Bayern they faltered but Ajax and Athletic Bilbao, teams in the past they might have expected to overcome easily. Domestically too they have looked often listless, frequently fragile. They were beaten at home by Blackburn, were dispatched from the Carling Cup by Crystal Palace and lost twice to City. Perhaps the most significant result of the season was when they lost at Wigan. Ferguson's side has always won the title by following the simple rule: don't forget to win at Wigan. Slipping against the division's smaller powers was something they rarely did. Ferguson's greatest strength has been his ability to remain competitive while reconstructing his team.

But, even were he to win the title, this side looks less like one in transition than in decline. And it is a decline that has been accelerating over the last four seasons.

In 2008, Ferguson's United won the Champions League final with a side of unimpeachable majesty. Against Manchester City, of the 11 playing in Moscow that wet May evening, six were, for various reasons of departure, retirement or injury, not available.

Their replacements were man for man weaker. Nani is no Cristiano Ronaldo, Ji Sung Park no Owen Hargreaves, Chris Smalling no Nemanja Vidic. It could be argued that Phil Jones is not yet even Wes Brown. But perhaps more tellingly, of the five who featured only Wayne Rooney could be considered now at his peak. The other quartet are four years further past their prime; the Rio Ferdinand who played against City is not on the same level as the Ferdinand of Moscow, any more than Paul Scholes is the Scholes of four years ago.

What Ferguson needs if he is immediately to strengthen this group is a core of certainty. The only place that will come from is outside. He will need to buy it in. And that does not come cheap. Especially when City, with little requirement to consider value, distort the market with their financial muscle.

Unless, of course, the manager is brave enough to follow the alternative path he has once before trod. In the three seasons 2003-04 to 2005-06, United faced a challenge not unlike the one now presented by City. With unlimited wealth, a shrewd young manager and ambitious ownership, Chelsea looked set to dominate for years. United appeared dated, past it, Ferguson himself written off as a competitive force; conditions were exactly those he now confronts.

For three years the title ended up elsewhere. History notes, however, that he recovered, ultimately outwitting his new adversary, returning United to the pinnacle, building by 2008 perhaps his finest side.

But he did so slowly, incrementally, not buying in proven reinforcements. Rooney, Ronaldo and Vidic were purchased as prospects rather than the finished article.

Maybe Ferguson believes Danny Welbeck, Tom Cleverley and Paul Pogba will develop over the next three seasons into an equally persuasive force. Maybe he has identified a youngster out there who might one day become the new Giggs. It is a strategy that would take time. Can he wait until his mid-seventies for his next great team to emerge?