Extreme El Nino events set to double as Earth warms

Researchers have revealed that extreme weather events fuelled by unusually strong El Ninos are likely to double in number as Earth warms.

Co-author, Dr Agus Santoso of ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CoECSS), said that Earth currently experiences an unusually strong El Nino event every 20 years, however, their research shows this will double to one event every 10 years.

Extreme El Nino events develop differently from standard El Ninos, which first appear in the western Pacific. Extreme El Nino’s occur when sea surface temperatures exceeding 28 degree Celsius develop in the normally cold and dry eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

To achieve their results, the team examined 20 climate models that consistently simulate major rainfall reorganization during extreme El Nino events.

They found a substantial increase in events from the present-day through the next 100 years as the eastern Pacific Ocean warmed in response to global warming.

Co-author, Professor Matthew England from CoECSS, said that this latest research based on rainfall patterns, suggests that extreme El Nino events are likely to double in frequency as the world warms leading to direct impacts on extreme weather events worldwide.

The study has been published their findings in the journal Nature Climate Change.