Riding on development agenda

The great Indian festival of elections has ended on an awesome note. Contrary to media predictions that there will be no clear winners or losers in this election, the electorate has given a decisive verdict in favour of the Congress-led UPA. It’s a remarkable victory for the Congress which has crossed 200 seats and a huge political setback for the right-wing BJP and the Left-led Third Front.

This election debunks the three initially espoused theories in the media. One that the 2009 parliamentary elections will intensify the process of regionalisation and the election will be an aggregation of state verdicts. Far from escalating the trend of regionalisation it has been stalled as this is a national verdict and not an aggregation of state and local verdicts.

Second, political projections of poor performance of the Congress because of its dynastic tendencies have been totally belied. Likewise the expectation that in the absence of overwhelming issues, voters will be guided by identity politics and local issues has not been borne out.

In fact, the spectacular performance of the UPA and that of the Congress shows that it’s a positive vote for development. Voters have reposed their faith in the Congress which is unusual at a time of economic downturn when the going gets tough for incumbent government.

For the second time in a row, the Congress Party has succeeded in beating back the BJP and emerged as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha. The marginalisation of communal politics and the triumph of pluralism is no mean achievement. Besides, the improved performance of the Congress is not due to alliances which were an important feature of its winning strategy in 2004. This time it is linked to a constructive agenda of development offered by the UPA.

By contrast, the BJP ran an essentially negative campaign. In 2004, the BJP had mounted a campaign against the foreign origins of Sonia Gandhi which came a cropper. In 2009, it targeted Manmohan Singh as a weak prime minister, a night watchman, which too the electorate decisively rejected. The principal opposition party did not offer a positive platform or alternative to the people when in fact the economic slowdown should have been an ideal time to put forward an economic recovery package.

But this party is more at ease on issues of security and identity politics while the electorate is more bothered about livelihood and aspirations of a better future. Distracted by more pressing economic concerns, the voters were not especially bothered about security despite last November’s spectacular attack on Mumbai by Pakistani terrorists. Perhaps because Congress’s leaders outflanked the BJP, by relentlessly listing the many terrorist attacks that occurred during the last BJP-led government, from 1999 to 2004.

The story of 2009 parliamentary elections is a story of a second wind for the Congress. Its improved performance is due to broadly five reasons.

(i) The voters strongly approved schemes such as the NREGS which has brought some relief to the poor in several states.

(ii) The loan waiver for farmers, increased rural credit and higher procurement prices have gone some way in alleviating agrarian distress which again translated into support for the Congress in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.

(iii) The Congress provided a relatively clean government which was not tainted by scams.

(iv) UPA government did not promote a narrow agenda disconnected to public purpose.

(v) Finally, the left of centre orientation, enhanced by the support of Left parties, played a crucial role in strengthening both the Congress and the UPA.

In short, Congress success is clearly built on the frank admission by its leadership that normal economic processes do not work in a situation of development deficit of regions or groups. Thus you need positive state intervention such as NREGS or loan waiver to promote the well-being of the most vulnerable sections of people.

While all these policy interventions were important motivating factors animating the voters, it was also the leadership of Sonia Gandhi that played the most crucial part in the turnaround of Congress fortunes. Credit must be given to her as she succeeded in improving the performance of the Congress much beyond what Rajiv Gandhi was able to achieve between 1989-91.

Thanks to her leadership, the Congress has recovered lost ground in UP and West Bengal and consolidated its position in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Rajasthan. Rahul Gandhi’s vigorous campaign appears to have encouraged young voters. All in all, this is a remarkable achievement for a party whose obituary has been written over and over again in the recent past.

The second big story of this election is that identity politics is beginning to lose ground. Indian democracy may well be at the cusp of important changes ushering in a new era of post-identity politics. The massive decline in the electoral fortunes of the champions of self-respect and empowerment — Lalu Prasad Yadav, Mulayam Sigh Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan and Mayawati — indicates that voters refuse to back parties that have become hostage to personal agendas of leaders rather than pursue a genuinely non-sectarian and egalitarian agenda of inclusive politics and inclusive growth.