As early as 1998, US Defence department forecast an India-Pakistan conflict over Jammu and Kashmir which can turn into the first-ever nuclear war in South Asia.
ISLAMABAD: As early as 1998, US Defence department forecast an India-Pakistan conflict over Jammu and Kashmir which can turn into the first-ever nuclear war in South Asia, eventually leading to deployment of multinational troops in both the countries.
The Pentagon study titled "Sources of Conflict in 21st Century: Regional Futures and the American Strategy", was conducted after India and Pakistan decided to go nuclear in 1998. The study, done by the Rand Corporation, a well-regarded semi-official US think-tank, said: "The cause of the Indo-Pak conflict is again likely to be the Pakistan-aided insurgency in Jammu Kashmir and east Punjab."
It said that Pakistan, seeing aid to insurgents as a good way to weaken its arch rival India, would increase its material support, including training and sanctuary, to insurgents. It created a step-by-step scenario that could lead to a nuclear conflagration.
1. The scenario begins with two Pakistani soldiers who act as trainers for Kashmiri insurgents and who are captured in an Indian commando raid on a rebel-controlled village. This is accompanied by a blunt warning from India that Pakistan must desist from supporting militants or face dire consequences.
2. Pakistan unleashes a propaganda war across the world and initiates diplomatic efforts aimed at isolating India. Simultaneously, Pakistan beefs up its covert support for insurgents. At the same time, India, on its part, retaliates by stepping up its own counter-insurgency operations in Jammu and Kashmir
3. Pakistan reacts by extending its covert operations: it goes on to infiltrate India's special-forces teams leading to attacks on Indian military formations that support many of the country's operations. This leads to a major public and political outcry in India calling for stern action against Pakistan.
4. That forces India to launch major attacks along the international border, accompanied by an intense air campaign. The Indian army captures Lahore and heads for of Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Pakistan finds its air force is badly mauled and its army is under severe pressure.
5. Fearful that India will destroy its nuclear arsenal, Islamabad warns India that it will face utter destruction unless the offensive is stopped. But India goes ahead with its attacks. Pakistan detonates a small fission bomb on an Indian army formation. India destroys a Pakistani air base with a bigger nuclear attack.
6. Pakistan attacks Jodhpur in India with a 20-kilo-tonne weapon. India strikes Hyderabad in Pakistan with a 200-kilo-tonne n-weapon and threatens ten times more destruction if any more n-weapons are used. Pakistan offers ceasefire. UN dispatches relief for victims and multinational forces (to oversee the ceasefire.)
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