US finds influence waning in Pak

NEW DELHI: With hawkish Pakistani generals and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) stoking war hysteria and squeezing out the civilian leadership, the US is increasingly finding its ability to influence events in the country limited. At the same time, the resurgent Taliban, operating from sanctuaries provided in the lawless tribal areas of northwest Pakistan, are making life difficult for Nato forces fighting to protect Afghanistan’s shaky democracy.

Since the beginning of this month the Taliban have extended their attacks to Peshawar, the key frontier town through which convoys carry supplies to the Nato forces. These attacks are forcing Washington to look for alternative supply routes.

This, in turn, may lead to a reorientation of US policy towards Pakistan, which has been central to its war on terror. “The frequent attacks on supply lines through Pakistan are leading to a rethink about US dependence on that country,” analyst Ajai Sahni said.

“This in turn could result in a dramatic reorientation of Washington’s policy towards Islamabad.”  

Smooth supply lines are a must in a combat zone and in landlocked Afghanistan, Pakistan has so far remained the only option. The US cannot turn for help to Iran, which borders Afghanistan in the west, because it has no diplomatic ties with Tehran.

Strategic affairs analyst K Subrahmanyam believes the short-term solution lies in the US seeking Russian help. Moscow has differences with Washington on many issues, but the Russians are wary of Islamist terrorists and were part of the coalition, together with India and Iran, that supported the Northern Alliance against the Taliban before they were driven from Kabul.

Supplies could come from Russia through Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. “I believe initial talks are on or likely to begin soon to get the supply lines going from Russia,” Subrahmanyam said. If the talks succeed, supplies can start coming through Russia immediately. The other route is via Georgia and Kazakhstan.

If an alternative supply route were to be established, Pakistan’s importance for the US would diminish, strategic affairs experts in India believe, though the army will still be needed to keep the tribal areas under control.

That the Taliban are creatures of Pakistan’s ISI and, by extension, the army has already been documented. The Americans, too, wooed the Taliban in their early years when they fought against the late president Najibullah.

Historically, the US used Pakistan to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan. Since then, Washington has been dependent on the Pakistani Army. Every military dictator in Islamabad had been supported by the US because of Pakistan’s “strategic importance”.
That importance is certain to diminish as the army proves itself to be an unreliable ally.

After September 11, 2001, when the Taliban were driven out of Afghanistan and general Pervez Musharraf decided to throw in his lot with the Americans, doubts have persisted that elements within the Pakistani establishment, particularly the army, continued to maintain links with the terrorists to gain “strategic depth” in Afghanistan and use these elements against India when needed. “It would be useful for India if the US reorients its policy towards Pakistan,” Sahni said. “We have to wait for the Obama administration to take a call.”