Obama to take a tougher line on Pak-based terror

Think-tanks say an international force should wipe out terrorist camps in lawless areas which have become a menace to international security

NEW YORK: Bush administration officials are pushing for action from Pakistan, including the extradition of Mumbai terror plotters, but in private, Washington is sceptical of the 10-month-old Pakistani civilian government’s power to crack down on militants. The Pakistan army and intelligence services’ complicity with terror outfits that launch attacks in India has been an open secret. But analysts say things may change now with the incoming Obama administration likely to adopt a tough line with Pakistan.

President-elect Barack Obama said this week that instability and the rise of militants pose “the single most important threat against the American people.” Influential members of the Indian-American community are also thrilled with longtime Indian friend Hillary Clinton’s selection as secretary of state and feel that she will extract greater Pakistani co-operation in denying Islamic terrorists a safe haven to plan attacks against India.

“For Pakistan, Obama is going to be tough on Asif Ali Zardari. He will not treat him like another Musharraf,” said Parag Khanna, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, who has coached the Obama campaign on foreign policy. 

“He is going to put big pressure on the Pakistan military to make more sincere efforts in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan.”

Analysts say that Obama’s impulses are in synch with New Delhi. He views military-dominated Pakistan with deep distrust. Among the first to oppose the war on Iraq, Obama has promised to bring US soldiers home and has indicated that the military focus of his war on terror will be Pakistan’s tribal areas and Afghanistan. Obama famously stirred controversy in August last year when he said he would attack terrorists in Pakistan with or without its government’s consent if he had actionable intelligence.

Robert Kagan, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says Obama should take the fight to the terrorists in Pakistan. “The Bush administration has tried for years to work with both the Pakistani military and the civilian government, providing billions of dollars in aid and advanced weaponry… The strategy hasn’t shown much success. After Mumbai, it has to be judged a failure. Until now, the military and intelligence services have remained more interested in wielding influence in Afghanistan through the Taliban and fighting India in Kashmir through terrorist groups than in cracking down. Perhaps they need a further incentive — such as the prospect of seeing parts of their country placed in an international receivership,” Kagan wrote in The Washington Post.

He suggests that “rather than simply begging” India to show restraint, a better option could be to internationalise the response. “Have the international community declare that parts of Pakistan have become ungovernable and a menace to international security.

Establish an international force to work with the Pakistanis to root out terrorist camps in Kashmir as well as in the tribal areas. This would have the advantage of preventing a direct military confrontation between India and Pakistan,” writes Kagan, adding it might actually “save face” for the Pakistani government, since the international community would be helping the central government reestablish its authority in areas where it has lost it.

Would such an action violate Pakistan’s sovereignty? “Yes, but nations should not be able to claim sovereign rights when they cannot control territory from which terrorist attacks are launched,” says Kagan.

A South Asian analyst in Washington who didn’t want to be named, however, warned that if India or an international force were to launch a limited strike against militant camps in Pakistan it would spur fractious Taliban warlords, al Qaeda fighters and Islamic fundamentalists of every hue to immediately unite and band together to create more terrorist mayhem.

“There is nothing like an external force to get different Islamist groups to stick together. It is best for the Pakistanis themselves to go after the terror outfits on their soil. The question we should be asking is how we can make this task easier for Islamabad,” said the expert.

Michael Krepon, the co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center, said there appears to be considerable evidence linking the Mumbai attackers to locations in Pakistan — but not to the government of Pakistan. “If this is indeed the case, the governments of India and Pakistan have hard decisions to make. The US government also faces stiff diplomatic challenges,” said Krepon.

Obama seems duly equipped for a more energetic Pakistan strategy. He will tie US military aid to Pakistan to the country’s success in closing down terrorist training camps, in blocking the Taliban from using its territory as a staging ground for attacks on Afghanistan and in getting rid of foreign fighters.