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Multipolar world may be a reality in space

Space exploration is gathering steam with more nations joining in.

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Space exploration is gathering steam with more nations joining in

NEW DELHI: When the Shenzhou VII was launched with three astronauts on board for China’s first spacewalk in the last week of September, for the 68 hours after the launch there were more Chinese in space than Russians or Americans. It may have been a symbolic triumph, but it was also a pointer to the future. China is catching up fast with America and Russia, the countries that have dominated the space race since it began more than 50 years ago. And it appears that India too won’t be far behind.

These are exciting days again for space exploration. Many veterans of space are comparing the present times to the 15th century, when European explorers crossed the seas to find ‘new worlds’. But the renewed space race could also be more violent than what many may have us believe. The military potential in space is being explored with equal vigour as countries set their sights on colonising the moon and Mars.

India going steady: India’s space programme has been moving ahead steadily. Having exhibited capabilities in cost-effective multiple payload launches, and given its reliable launch vehicles, the country is among the forerunners of the global space exploration race. Despite this, from what is known of the Indian programme, it boasts of no military ambitions, unlike China and the US.

Chinese roadmap: The significance China attaches to its successes in space was apparent during the Beijing Olympics in August. The first torchbearer in Beijing was Yang Liwei, China’s first astronaut.

Starting from 1992, the Chinese have been working at a frenzied pace towards their own manned space flight. In 2003, China became the third country after the US and Russia to launch its own manned space mission, Shenzhou V. With the Shenzhou VII, during which an army colonel carried out the first space walk by a Chinese national, Beijing believes it has achieved another milestone. Next on the cards is a Chinese space station by 2020. This is expected to be along the lines of the International Space Station (ISS), a joint effort of the US, Russia, and other countries. It is expected to weigh 100 tons, and would help more space research programmes.

China’s first satellite, Chang’e I, already orbits the moon. The second step would be a moon landing. The third would be a Chinese mission to collect samples. All these stages are slated to be completed before 2020.

It is not just the moon that China is looking at. It has drawn up plans for Mars and beyond. The first unmanned Mars mission is expected sometime after 2014. The country also has a roadmap for its manned mission to Mars to be carried out after 2040.

Nasa’s running battle: As the world watches the strides China and India are taking in space, at the other end, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Nasa) is celebrating its 50th year in the United States, though the agency is dogged by several concerns and budgetary woes. Nasa administrator Michael Griffin is engaged in a running battle with the White House to keep the ISS going. After 2010, when Nasa space shuttles are scheduled to be retired, the US may have to depend on Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft to send its astronauts to the ISS.

Griffin stated in a leaked email that members of the US administration “do not want the (ISS) to be sustained, and have done everything possible to ensure that it would not be”, claims a source. It is said that Nasa will retire its space shuttles because of safety concerns. A new fleet is expected to be ready only after 2015. In the interim, the US may have to depend on Russia for ISS missions: no easy task given the delicate relations between the US and Russia. Drawing on the challenges, Griffin pointed out:
“The victories I am striving for include the passage in Congress of a waiver allowing me to use US tax dollars to purchase seats on the Russian Soyuz to take our astronauts to the space station that we have built. And this will be a victory because all of the other outcomes are worse.”

The dependence on Russia may be a low point for Nasa. But American dominance of space may continue. Nasa’s two rovers, a part of the Mars mission, have spotted snow falling from the Martian clouds and established the possibility of past interaction between liquid water and minerals. Nasa’s Messenger will soon show us the unknown sides of Mercury, its New Horizons is travelling to Pluto, and the Dawn is travelling to the asteroids. But this may not be good enough. Given the presence of China, India, Japan, South Korea, and others, it may not be a race easily dominated by the Americans much longer.

j_josy@dnaindia.net
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