Road to Mandalay

Sudha Ramachandran

The ongoing protests against military rule in Myanmar provide India with an opportunity to correct its excessive tilt towards the military rulers there.

Since the mid-1990s, India has pursued a ‘pragmatic policy’ of engaging Myanmar’s military rulers and toning down its support of the pro-democracy movement in that country.

This has not only severely dented India’s image as a supporter of democratic struggles, but has also failed to produce the results that had prompted the policy shift in the first place.

A massive fuel price hike a month ago triggered protests in Myanmar. These have since snowballed into a larger protest against military rule. The protests are being described as posing the most prolonged challenge to military rule in Myanmar in over a decade.

While it did seem that the military had managed to break the back of the pro-democracy movement by keeping its leader Aung San Suu Kyi and others under detention for several years, the current protests signal that the movement is not quite dead yet.

India, which was a vociferous supporter of the pro-democracy movement in the 1980s and early 1990s, toned down this support around 1993, when it adopted a ‘pragmatic policy’ of dealing with its military rulers.

But roughly 15 years after its rapprochement with the generals, it is evident that this policy has not paid off. India’s decision to switch from an ‘idealistic policy’ of openly supporting the pro-democracy movement to a pragmatic one of doing business with the generals was prompted by its need to counter China’s growing influence in Myanmar and to get the junta to crack down on ULFA bases there.

India realised that its security on its eastern flank had reduced sharply in the years it had distanced itself from the junta. It was also keen to increase interaction with south-east Asia; Myanmar was the land link to that region.

India-Myanmar relations have improved dramatically over the past decade. Bilateral visits have taken place and trade has expanded from US$87.4 million in 1990-91 to $569 million in 2005-06 and India is involved in many infrastructure projects in Myanmar. But security concerns remain. Over the past year China has won over some supposedly pro-India generals.

China has been helping Myanmar modernise its naval bases. Its presence in the waters off India’s east coast has grown over the past decade.

The Sino-Indian competition for Myanmar’s gas has gone in Beijing’s favour. As for support in counter-insurgency operations, the junta’s record is patchy.

Myanmar’s generals have coordinated operations with the Indian Army and smashed rebel bases in Myanmar. But this has raised doubts about their intentions.

When India honoured Suu Kyi with the Jawaharlal Nehru Award for International Understanding, the junta struck back by releasing scores of Indian insurgents it had rounded up during a joint offensive, ‘Operation Golden Bird’.

In 2001, when India alleged that two Pakistani nuclear scientists with al-Qaeda were in Myanmar, the junta reacted by freeing about 200 militants.

By courting the generals, India has alienated pro-democracy activists across the world. India was regarded as among the strongest of supporters of the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar especially in the aftermath of the junta’s brutal suppression of the student uprising in 1988 and its refusal to hand over power to the National League for Democracy, which won the 1991 general election.

In 2004, India rolled out the red carpet for Senior General Than Shwe, the head of the junta. In doing so, it gave the junta something few of its other friends in Asia, least of all China, can give –– the stamp of approval of the world’s largest democracy. India has lost much goodwill among the Myanmarese people as it is seen to be shoring up the military regime.

Many believe that Indian military equipment –– India maintains it supplies only non-lethal equipment –– is being used to suppress ethnic minorities in Myanmar.

Protests against military rule are gathering momentum. So far, the generals have avoided a military crackdown, as they fear this will further fuel the pro-democracy movement. It is likely that they will abandon this restraint in the event of protests persisting.

Unrest in Myanmar has security implications for India. Delhi cannot ignore the developments in its eastern neighbour. It needs to quietly nudge the generals to open dialogue with Suu Kyi.

The writer is a commentator on current affairs.