Protests in Myanmar could trigger similar effect in Tibet

There are bound to be clashes where there is resentment among people, say experts

HONG KONG:  When the burgundy-red-robed monks of Myanmar began marching in protest against their authoritarian rulers last month, the world watched in awe and wonder. But it’s a fair bet that China’s rulers were more than a little disquieted by the ‘metta movement’ in Myanmar.

The reason: these are scenes that have played out in neighbouring Tibet — always with disturbing consequences — in recent decades.

And according to Tibet watchers, the protests in Myanmar could trigger a similar response in Tibet, where demands for greater autonomy have in the past been put down with an iron hand.

Tibetans in exile (including the pseudonymous Ketsun Lobsang Dondup) point out that Tibet and Myanmar share many commonalities: “Our peoples and language are related, and we share a deep faith in Buddhism and the misfortune of brutal dictatorship. Our revered leaders have both won Nobel Peace Prizes, but are exiled or imprisoned.” And in the late 1980s both Tibet and Myanmar witnessed protests, which were violently crushed.

“The massive protests in Burma hold a lesson for the people of Tibet — if we choose to listen,” notes Dondup. First, the airing of economic grievances can quickly spiral when there is “deep underlying resentment”.

That condition is well met in Tibet, claims Dondup. The influx of Chinese settlers has had increased the level of Tibetan unemployment and triggered inflationary pressures as well as a surge in crime rates, claims Dondup. Taken with the people’s “underlying unhappiness at Chinese rule and attacks” on the Dalai Lama, things could get out of hand, he adds. 

Additionally, the use of communication technology to broadcast images and information of protests and repression — as had happened in Myanmar — could be replicated elsewhere. And, more important, when monks come out in support of lay people, the joint force presents a much bigger threat to repressive governments, notes Dondup. 

Furthermore, if there were protests in Lhasa today, hypothesises Dondup, Beijing would probably be constrained by the international focus on it in the context of the Olympics next year. “Would the Chinese government hesitate in cracking down?… Would this hesitation be enough to allow a few small protests to spiral into a challenge to Chinese rule?” 

Dondup makes clear that his intention is not to incite protests in Tibet. Yet, he says he and others in exile have an obligation to “raise the level of discussion and debate among Tibetans about strategy, timing and consequences.”