The current political uncertainty in Pak is likely to cast a shadow over the India-Pak peace process as New Delhi waits and watches the fate of President Musharraf.
NEW DELHI: The current political uncertainty in Pakistan is likely to cast a shadow over the India-Pakistan peace process as New Delhi waits and watches the fate of President General Musharraf.
Over the last year or so, India had been getting messages from Pakistan’s political parties — Pakistan People’s Party, the Pakistan Muslim League as well as Imran Khan’s party — not to negotiate with a military dictator.
When Benazir Bhutto was in New Delhi for the India Today conclave, she said that any deal with the military regime may not be acceptable to a democratically-elected government.
Until the current haze clears, and there is a definite indication about who calls the shots inPakistan, the peace talks which have already lost its steam will be on hold.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s expected visit to Pakistan has not materialised and is unlikely to do so now. Though the schedule for the composite dialogue will continue, nothing can be expected.
India’s public stand has been that it will deal with whoever is in power in Islamabad, whether a military dictator or a democratically-elected government. But now with President Musharraf’s image getting a nose dive in Pakistan, there is no surety whether Musharraf will be in a position to manipulate the elections in November. For one, the Pakistan Supreme Court is unlikely to fall in with the General’s wishes.
Though the storming of the Lal Masjid was more or less inevitable and Musharraf may gain brownie points with the Bush administration for the crackdown against radical Islamists, the fall out may further antagonise large sections of the domestic population.
This together with the President’s stand-off with the Supreme Court has led to a general weakening of the military regime and given fresh impetus to the democratic forces in Pakistan.
There is a general view among sections in India that Musharraf is the best bet for New Delhi, as the army calls the shots on India-Pakistan issues, whether or not a democratically-elected government in power. But some analysts prefer to see the positive sign and believe that democratic forces in Pakistan will finally triumph.
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