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Who will rule the skies tomorrow?

IndiGo will be a major player, while Jet will fall to the fifth position, says a JP Morgan report.

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IndiGo will be a major player, while Jet will fall to the fifth position, says a JP Morgan report.
 
BANGALORE: As airlines get embroiled in a brutal war on the price and capacity fronts, the aviation landscape could well change drastically, going forward. Smaller players could push bigger players down the ladder to take their position. This is what emerges from broking house JP Morgan’s crystal ball gazing into future.
 
Based on aircraft orders, JP Morgan’s equity research team has computed the market share (in terms of seat capacity) of airlines on completion of (plane) delivery, which varies for each one of them.
 
And guess who will dominate the sky once orders of airlines are completely executed? Today’s midget budget carrier IndiGo, with 2% market share, will leapfrog from the bottom rung to the second position with 15% share as its seat capacity soars from 900 seats to 17,100.
 
National flag carrier Air-India will continue to be the market leader despite a dip of five percentage points in its share from 27% to 22%.
 
Full service carrier Kingfisher Airlines, which will be taking delivery of 83 aircraft, will climb up to third position from fifth position. The Vijay Mallya-promoted carrier’s market share will double from 7% to 14% with the addition of 12,984 seats.
 
Jet Airways, the largest operator amongst private players today, will descend from third to fifth position. Its pie will shrink four percentage points to 12% from 16%.
 
Jet will rub shoulders with Indian Airlines, whose share will plunge 13 percentage points from 25% to 12% and its rank will slip from second to fifth.
 
Another airline whose share will fall is legacy carrier Air Sahara. With just 10 aircraft order, its seat capacity will go up from 3,432 to 4,804, but its share in the pie will erode four percentage points from 8% to 4%.
 
No-frills carrier Air Deccan will maintain its current fourth position with a 13% market share, up from 9% at present, while SpiceJet Ltd and Go Air will see their market share remain constant at 3% and 2%, respectively.
 
“You never know what can happen next. Tomorrow, if Tata’s interest in SpiceJet goes beyond that of a financial investor, then it will have a major bearing on the market,” said an industry observer. According to data compiled by JP Morgan, India’s aircraft fleet of registered airlines will swell from the current 282 aircraft to 682 aircraft. The projection for future aircraft fleet is based on the orders made by the existing carriers. The total seat capacity in India will jump 149% from 44,502 seats to 110,614 seats.
 
War in the air
 
New orders will swell the total aircraft fleet to 682 from 282 now
 
Total seat capacity will jump 149% from 44,502 seats to 110,614 seats
 
Air Deccan will maintain its position at fourth
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