They get Zarqawi, but

The death of Abu Musad al Zarqawi, the Al Qaeda kingpin in Iraq, in an air-strike by US forces, is a military and intelligence success for the US. Zarqawi fought on two fronts in Iraq. First, he led telling attacks and kidnappings against the US and its allies. That dented the confidence of the Iraqi public in the abilities of the Americans and also had a bearing on morale within the US forces.

Second, he came to epitomise the Sunni force of the Al Qaeda. He opened the Sunni front in the Iraqi civil war, which saw sectarian slaughter on a frenzied scale. With his death, the Sunni hand in the civil strife will be weakened somewhat.

Zarqawi had a price of $25 million on his head. In a significant propaganda victory for the allied forces, it was human intelligence from Iraqis themselves that played a part in the execution of the operation that ultimately resulted in his death. This suggests an improvement of the US position in intelligence gathering.

The US may have a clear edge in weapons and technology but it has for long suffered from a lack of human intelligence on the ground in both Iraq and Afghanistan. But that may be a relatively minor gain for the US at this stage of the war in Iraq.

While it is too early to assess the long-term impact of the killing, Al Qaeda might face only a temporary leadership vacuum in Iraq. This void could give the US forces a time advantage in leveraging counter-terror operations. But the insurgency against American forces may well continue, perhaps with renewed vigour.

Al Qaeda operates in a structure where decentralised terror cells take priority over centralised command. While a lack of leadership may deny the organisation crucial coherence, to underestimate its killing power would be a mistake. It is quite possible that the opposite may happen and violence may spurt.

For the moment, the killing comes as good news for the beleaguered American forces. Interestingly, the price of petrol dipped as the news became public, because the fears of terrorists taking over oil facilities in Iraq have decreased. But, it may be little more than a symbolic victory for the United States, which is mired in a terrible mess of its own making and the killing of one terrorist may not amount to much at this stage of the war in Iraq.