After Kofi Annan who?

ED Mathew

With the second term of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan coming to an end in December, the race for the world body’s top post has begun in earnest. Since it is considered Asia’s turn now to assume the coveted position based on the tradition of regional rotation, three Asian countries have already announced their candidates.

There are candidates from other regions rumoured to be interested in vying for the top job, including former Polish president Alexander Kwasniewski and Latvia’s president Vaira Vike-Freiberga.

However, what surprises many observers is the fact that India, an emerging world power and an Asian giant, has not named a candidate of its own yet. Nor has it endorsed any of the Asian candidates—former Under Secretary General for Disarmament Affairs Jayantha Dhanapala of Sri Lanka, South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon or Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai.

Why has India, with no dearth of personalities with sterling international credentials, not announced its own candidate? India seems to be wary of nominating a candidate for fear of losing steam in its weightier bid to become a member of the Security Council.

Many observers consider it a miscalculation as its chances of winning the top UN post look far brighter than its Security Council bid. The reasons are many.

The momentum for the proposed expansion of the Security Council that peaked at the UN’s sixtieth anniversary summit last year has now all but dissipated.

As even a different set of administrative reforms at the world body aggressively pursued by the United States has hit a dead-end with the G 77 countries as well as China and Russia refusing to toe the line, the likelihood of a Security Council expansion has turned into a mirage, at least for now.

There is no consensus among the veto-wielding Big Five—the US, Russia, China, France and the UK—on the scope and scale of the proposed expansion of the 15-member body.

And they are in no hurry to admit new members into their exclusive club. While the United States is known to be ambivalent about Germany joining the Security Council, China has publicly opposed Japan’s candidacy.

“We are opposed to Japan’s bid as it has not adopted the correct attitude to historic issues,” said Sun Yuxi, China’s Ambassador to India recently. China is also known to be uneasy about India making a claim for a Security Council seat jointly with Japan.

The unified stance taken by the G-4—Japan, Germany, India and Brazil—that championed the call for the Security Council expansion has already crumbled. Latest reports say Japan has given up its plan to submit a new resolution on the Security Council reform this spring.

Africa’s stance on the issue is equally muddled. With only one position—stretchable to two with luck—there are already half a dozen countries in the fray, including Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt. A consensus among the African group is nowhere on the horizon.

Given the current befuddled scenario, the proposal for the expansion looks unlikely to realise before the 70th. As a result, there are mounting calls for the world’s largest democracy to field a candidate.

There are two factors that favour an Indian to become the next Secretary-General, analysts say. First, the close ties India and the US have forged lately will make Washington less inclined to veto an Indian candidate.

Second, the recent bold push by Canada for a bigger say for the General Assembly in the selection process for the Secretary-General’s post is likely to aid an Indian candidate because of the country’s good standing among the developing nations. 

“A good Indian candidate, with the firm backing of the government, may become an irresistible choice,” says TP Sreenivasan, a former Indian envoy to the United Nations. Prominent among the Indian names that have cropped up is that of Under Secretary-General Shashi Tharoor, the highest-ranking Indian in the UN Secretariat. More names are likely to emerge.

Demonstrated vision and leadership and a comprehensive understanding of the purposes and principles of the UN Charter are considered some of the qualifications needed for the UN’s top job. India will have no difficulty in nominating a candidate with such qualifications.

An Indian occupying the world’s top diplomatic job will be a fitting tribute to the new Asian century. It will also confirm India’s growing status as a major player on the international scene. Whether the decision makers in New Delhi will seize the moment or not is anybody’s guess.
 
The writer is a commentator on current affairs.