Not just Raja; the buck stops with Sonia and Manmohan

The Supreme Court (SC) asked the right question of Manmohan Singh. Why did you sit for so long on Subramanian Swamy’s request to prosecute A Raja, the now-disgraced former telecom minister? The key to unravelling the spectrum mess lies in the answer to this. That Raja has resigned is neither here nor there. It’s obvious he quit to save his boss, M Karunanidhi, the blushes.

The media is barking up the wrong tree because it has put three people — the PM, Sonia Gandhi and Karunanidhi — in the “beyond reproach” category. Going after them, and the businessmen involved, has consequences for journalists and the media — loss of access to the dynasty, harassment of Tamil Nadu-based journalists, etc. This is why the focus is on Raja and some faceless bureaucrats.

Raja is the symptom of the underlying rot. The disease is something else. The prime minister knows the answer to the Supreme Court’s question, but he cannot utter it. Sonia Gandhi also knows the answer, but she is completely unaccountable to anyone. Raja knows the answer, but he cannot speak ill of his mentor and master. Karunanidhi knows the answer, but why will he say anything to incriminate himself?

What one can be absolutely certain of is: after a tense few months of finger-pointing, after a few thousand hours of questioning and maybe some arrests, nothing will be heard of the spectrum scam. Reason: the nexus between the guilty — from businessmen to politicians and bureaucrats — is too strong for anyone to let the other go under. They are all guilty, and that is the reason why they will hang together.

Let’s start again with the SC’s question: why did it take the PM so long to reply to Swamy? The answer: the division of responsibilities between Singh and Sonia is such that the former manages the government and the latter, the coalition. Since Spectrum Raja was a protected species in coalition politics, only Sonia could take a call on him.

This may be a complete travesty of Constitutional arrangements and the system of collective ministerial accountability, but that’s what Sonia and Manmohan have agreed.Bringing Raja to heel needed Sonia to tackle Karunanidhi — which she didn’t. Hers is the first culpability.

Meanwhile, Manmohan did what he could. He bleated on about transparency, but could do zilch about reining in Raja. In 2009 he even tried to keep Raja out of the ministry, but failed when Sonia buckled under Karunanidhi’s pressure tactics. The reason why Singh could not reply to Swamy’s request was that he could not cross Sonia’s advice. If he had said go ahead, Karunanidhi would have rocked the boat. If he had done nothing, Singh would have been complicit in Raja’s crimes.

He did the next best thing. He played for time, and sent the CBI in to probe in the hope that when things got really hot, Raja will quit. When the time was ripe, the Congress ensured a few strategic leaks, and the CAG report was used to raise the level of pressure on Raja.

Now let’s look at the crime from the side of the likely guilty parties: Raja and his party boss. It is foolish to presume that Raja perpetrated a scam just to feather his own nest. Remember, the main reason why the previous DMK minister in charge of telecom, Dayanidhi Maran, was removed was because he fell out with Karunanidhi. The whispered reason was that there was some dispute about resources.

Raja took his place because he was someone Karunanidhi trusted. It is thus reasonable to assume that Raja’s tenure was used to serve Karunanidhi’s interests.

What next? With Raja out, will the truth finally emerge? Will the CBI go after the culprits? Most unlikely. For one, the Congress is gaining the upper hand with DMK. It has no reason to let go of it. Two, the nexus between businessmen and politics is so strong, that any hasty prosecution will have huge political and economic ramifications. Three, the business rivalries that allowed the telecom scam to surface in the first place cannot be allowed to go too far.

With the DMK now on tenterhooks about how far the Congress will allow the CBI to proceed against them, Karunanidhi will not be eager to rock the boat. With Jayalalithaa dangling the bait of support to the Congress, he is on the back foot, especially with state assembly elections round the corner. The Congress, if it does not overplay its hand, will probably promise to save him from CBI inquiries as long as he allows the party to put telecom back on the right path.

Businessmen will also be pressuring the Congress to go slow. Reason: the CAG report has already identified the links between Anil Ambani and Raja. This may suit Mukesh Ambani, but the scores of other licensees who are similarly threatened will want to do a deal with the government. Congress will thus be in the happy position of being wooed by business and the DMK for favours. It can have its cake and eat it too. It is unlikely to go after Raja beyond a point.