Pakistan president Asif Ali Zardari is in trouble. His days might not be exactly numbered because the two Pakistan Muslim Leagues, Nawaz Sharif and Qaid-e-Azam are reluctant to topple him at this moment in time, but the countdown has begun.
The decision to shift the nuclear command to prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani was a clear indication that Zardari has run foul of the military and the United States who have been closely monitoring Pakistan’s nuclear assets. The reasons given out by Pakistan officials in select briefings to the local media range from fears that the president will be liable for prosecution on criminal and corruption charges now that the National Reconciliation Ordinance providing him immunity has lapsed, to whispers that he is suffering from dementia and insomnia and is under serious medication.
The political point remains that Zardari was no longer trusted by the US and Pakistan’s military to remain in charge of the National Command Authority, set up by his predecessor general Pervez Musharraf in 1999 to manage and the nation’s strategic nuclear assets. The transfer also took place without a murmur of protest and was quickly cleared by Pakistan’s defence standing committee. President Zardari has since lashed out at his critics, spoken of “conspiracies” and yet again evoked the martyrdom of his late wife Benazir Bhutto to re-state his credentials as a true, sacrificing democrat.
It is no secret that Zardari is extremely unpopular in Pakistan and becoming increasingly so with every passing day. Stories of corruption are rampant and he has never enjoyed the confidence of the army that remains a major player even today. In fact, Pakistani officers have repeatedly pointed out to the media that he has few links with the military and has not made any effort, as the Supreme Commander of the armed forces, to forge a new relationship with them. He is also accused of not visiting the soldiers injured in the ongoing war against terrorism or the families of the victims.
At the same time there appears to be a slight reluctance by the military to convert the push to a shove as it does not want to add to the chaos and uncertainty in Pakistan. The army is aware that public sentiment remains in favour of civilian rule and any attempt to get back to power is going to matters even more difficult domestically. PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif has also recently indicated that he is not going to make matters more difficult for Zardari, as he does not want army rule. This, of course, is part of the reason, the second being that the US remains wary of Sharif and the PML-N and is not prepared to allow him to become president of Pakistan. The army is more favourably inclined, but not sufficiently so to thwart Washington on this issue.
The Pakistan army has become increasingly dependent on the US for its arms, ammunition and spare parts. It can no longer take decisions independent of Washington for this very simple reason. The US knows that any attempt to impose military rule in Pakistan at this stage will be disastrous, and is also reluctant to allow Sharif with his uncertain politics to come to power. There is no other alternative at this point and hence while Zardari is unpopular now with all sections, he will be allowed to continue until a credible face appears on the scene. Until then the process to trim the powers of the president will continue, with help from sections of the PPP and supporting PML-N.
Prime minister Gilani is at best a lightweight in government and the party, although he is more pliable and seen as more useful by the military in Pakistan. It is thus, not without reason that India’s army chief of staff general Deepak Kapoor expressed concern about the decision to pass the control from the president to the prime minister of Pakistan saying, “it is more important to have proper control over nuclear weapons and ensure that it does not go into wrong hands.” This was commented upon immediately by the Pakistani media that said that Kapoor’s was the sole voice in the world to question the decision. In actual fact he had not questioned it, just expressed natural concern. But it is true that there was hardly any reaction from the US and the P-5 in the United Nations Security Council despite the fact that the security of Pakistan’s nuclear assets has remained a major issue of concern.
Zardari has responded to the public humiliation by lashing out at all opponents, political and within the media. For he knows as well as his colleagues in the PPP that while circumstances might have helped him survive this round, he does not have the support or the ability now to stop the countdown mid number. As a former diplomat in Pakistan said, “the question is no longer of an ‘if and a when’, but of ‘how soon’”.
— Seema Mustafa, is a Delhi-based journalist.
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