India and China will always be ‘frenemies’

The recent shadow-boxing between India and China is symptomatic of the new edginess in their relationship. While China is already the world’s No 2 economy and an emerging superpower, India has begun its ascent.

It’s obvious that China is not comfortable with this. It’s rejection of a visa to Lt Gen BS Jaswal because he served in J&K is intended to send two messages, one to us, and another for Pakistan. The message for India is that China doesn’t want us to harbour ambitions beyond south Asia. Its message to Pakistan is that it is a loyal friend.

This is not surprising, since China is reported to be maintaining a strong military presence in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Both Islamabad and the locals are likely to resent this intrusive presence but for reassurances on Kashmir.

India has rightly reacted strongly to this needless Chinese provocation. The ministry of external affairs is reported to have strongly told the Chinese ambassador that Kashmir is as core to India as Tibet is to China. Both the US and China might well prefer Pakistan as an ally given the biddable nature of its governments and its geographical importance, but neither country can afford to antagonise India. We are the dominant power in the
neighbourhood and we offer a much bigger market than Pakistan. The dictates of commerce and global positioning make us a more profitable ally in the long run.

By registering its anger and freezing defence exchanges with China, India has made its position clear. It will not have its internal matters questioned and it will not be insulted. But escalating this matter further is not in anybody’s interest. China may never be a friend — both nations are after all in competition for a larger say in world affairs — but it can be cultivated as an amicable “frenemy”.

Our biggest diplomatic challenge is to convince China that there is no long-term advantage in annoying India over Kashmir. In hindsight, denying visas is a petty device not worthy of a putative superpower.