The general impression till a few weeks ago has been that the Copenhagen climate summit next month will not achieve anything because governments across the world — developed and the developing — are not willing to accept cuts in carbon emissions. But there has been an unexpected development. First, the US and then China have announced plans to reduce carbon emissions. President Barack Obama announced on Wednesday that the US would reduce 7% of 2005 levels by 2020 and take it to 83% by 2050. China’s state council, its cabinet, said on Thursday that it will reduce by 40 to 45 per cent of the 2005 levels by 2020.
There is plenty to quarrel with the figures because they are not as impressive as they look. Those who know the issue closely are well aware that this could be just a symbolic, almost an empty, gesture and that it does not help in substantial reduction of emissions which is urgently needed. There are others, the optimists, who believe that this is in the nature of an opening bid and as the climate conference gets going, these figures could serve as a baseline on which to negotiate further curbs.
Obama and Chinese prime minister Wen Jiabao will also attend the summit. The American and Chinese moves should be seen as a signal that countries which had resisted any kind of commitment are now willing to accept voluntary obligations and that it is a good beginning.
Where does this leave India, which needs to undertake its own set of obligations if the climate negotiations are to be meaningful? In retrospect, the attempt by minister for environment and forests Jairam Ramesh in October that India should accept voluntary curbs stands vindicated. When the letter he wrote to Manmohan Singh suggesting voluntary curbs found its way into the media, there was a sharp and negative reaction from the green warriors in the country.
It was interpreted that Ramesh was arguing for Indian capitulation and even those who were not opposed to either Ramesh or the government agreed that Ramesh appeared to have weakened in the face of pressure from the US and other industrialised countries. In the light of the American and Chinese announcements it would seem that India has lost the initiative and that it could have easily occupied the high ground had it made the first move instead of sticking to stated positions.
Ramesh can still be blamed for not stating his views clearly. What is unacceptable is the government’s secretive ways of decision-making. India can hope to play a major role in Copenhagen only if it debates the issue in the open in the country.
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