After 20 years, there is a single-digit increase in China’s defence budget in 2010 and this has caused a flutter of sorts. The world’s China-watchers are trying to read the signals right here. They are debating whether this is to be attributed to Beijing struggling with the impact of global economic slowdown or if it is due to change in China’s security perceptions.
There is speculation in sections of the Western media that perhaps the message underlying this modest defence budget hike is that it does not mean to flex its military muscle and this is part of a PR exercise to cultivate a softer image to reassure its Asian neighbours as much as the Europeans and the Americans.
This fevered interpretation is a reflection of the world’s fears and anxieties over the emergence of China as a pre-eminent global player in terms of military and economic power. There is a bit of confusion among analysts whether the world is wary of China the economic powerhouse or China the military giant. Those who might welcome China as an economic giant are not likely to accept it as a military power.
The Chinese themselves are quite clear about their military goals. China is a large country — they need to spend to meet its requirements.The Chinese also rule out that their defence outlays are in any way confined to concerns over Taiwan, though the US has recently signed an arms deal worth US$6.4 billion. The argument proffered is that China’s defence spend corresponds more to its global positioning.
Beyond rationalisations offered by Chinese leaders and experts and by blinkered Western security experts, there is need for a realistic reorientation of views with regard to China. China is in the big league now and the world has to come to terms with it.
American strategists have been emphasising for the last few years that the US has no plans of containing China but that Washington believes in engaging Beijing. This could be the proverbial diplomatic doublespeak. That is while talking of engagement, what the Americans have on their mind is containment. But this is going to be of little use because of the changed economic reality.
India too has to make up its mind. There is the temptation to join hands with those Western powers which are uneasy with China’s rise to power because strategy hardliners in Delhi argue that India and China are rivals who cannot be partners. But covert or open confrontation with China is not a realistic option. India will have to accept China and Beijing will have to concede that India is there at the top too. It is not that there is no room at the top for the two Asian giants but that the world is better off with India and China together at the helm.
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