Comment

Lester Brown of the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute remains a quietly optimistic man despite the fact that his warnings over environmental disasters have for long remained unheeded. He was in Delhi this week to launch the Hindi translation of his new book, Plan 3.0: Mobilising to Save Civilization. Brown is not your eco-warrior. He prefers the role of the typical American lobbyist, who will convince you with factsrather than with shrill protests and slogans. In an interview with Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr, he shares his thoughts on climate change, curbing greenhouse gas emissions, and what emerging market economies like India and China can do about these issues.

Do you think critical developments, such as the precipitate melting of the Arctic ice are having an impact on the decision-makers in the governments of various countries?
I think they have no option but to take note of these developments and take the necessary action. If they do not, then people at the grassroots will start doing so. For example, when the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 and the East European communist governments crumbled, no one expected that there would be that kind of a sudden change. But it happened. A similar thing will be happening with regard to climate change and the environment as well. There will be sudden changes in policy.

Is nuclear power a viable alternative to fossil fuels?
It is not. The costs of a nuclear power plant will have to include not just the commissioning of it, but also that of disposal of the nuclear waste, of the plant's decommissioning, and the possible accidents. Nuclear power is not economically viable compared to wind and solar power. The last nuclear plant set up in the US was in 1979.

Have the non-conventional or renewable sources of energy become commercially feasible?
Yes. They have. In the oil-rich state of Texas in the US, 23,000 megawatts of electricity is produced through wind power. The local people have realised the need to switch to alternative sources of energy. Three states —Texas, North Dakota and Kansas — have wind power potential to meet the electricity needs of the whole of the US. Similarly, Algeria has the potential to generate solar power that could meet the needs of the European countries. So, it is also commercially viable. Already Algeria is exporting 6,000 mw of power to Europe through an under-sea connection. In countries like India, which has a long coastline, it is possible to harness wave power. India is already generating impressive amounts of wind power. There are technologies now available to harness alternative sources of power.

Many people seem inclined toward good old coal in order to get away from oil and gas. The argument is that there are now technologies which make clean coal possible through processes like coal gasification.
There is nothing like clean coal. It is not my view alone. It is the view on Wall Street as well. The Bush Administration had planned for 17 coal-fired power plants. But no one from the Wall Street was ready to back the projects with money. So, even the federal government has backed off.

Is the automobile industry a big hurdle in tackling the climate change crisis?
Days of the gas-guzzlers are over. It is not possible to sustain consumption of oil at those levels even if there are people who can afford to pay the high prices of gasoline. Oil production has reached peak levels, or nearing it. It is going to decline in the years to come. There are no inexhaustible sources. All these years the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US department of energy had been projecting the demands to be met without ever bothering to look at the supply side. It was assumed that the supplies were there. Now a point has been reached when the oil supplies can no longer be taken for granted.

What do you think of the explosion of the automobile market in India?
Such growth will be difficult to sustain in countries like India. For every thousand cars, an acre of land has to be paved for parking and driving purposes. If there are millions of cars, then millions more acres of land has to be diverted. It is unsustainable. There is no alternative to an efficient public transport system.

Do emerging economies like India and China have to make a trade-off between development and environment protection?
Emerging economies have an advantage. They do not have to make all the mistakes that the old industrialised countries have made, and then turn back. They can take short-cuts to solar and wind power because the technology is there.